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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Battle Lines Drawn ahead of FOMC

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Battle Lines Drawn ahead of FOMC

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro reversed sharply off confluence resistance last week and the recent recovery against the US Dollar may be vulnerable while below this key threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: Euro posted an outside-day reversal off confluence resistance last week around the 1.11-handle with the pullback rebounding off slope support early in the week. Key near-term resistance remains with the 61.8% retracement at 1.1101 with a breach / close above needed to fuel the next leg higher in EUR/USD. Initial support rests at the 25% parallel (currently ~1.1060s) with bullish invalidation now raised to the objective monthly open at 1.1023.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of a near-term ascending pitchfork formation extending November lows. Note that the median-line converges Fibonacci resistance with the September high and May lows highlighting a critical range at 1.1104/10 – a topside breach above this threshold would expose subsequent resistance objectives at 1.1135 and 1.1167. Critical resistance remains at 1.1186-1.1208- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

Initial at 1.1065 with a break of the weekly low risking a test of the 61.8% retracement / December open at 1.1023/32- an area of interest for possible exhaustion / entries IF reached. A close below this threshold would risk another test of key support at the low-week close / 61.8% retracement of the October rally at 1.0976/94 – critical.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: The Euro recovery is trading just below confluence resistance around the 1.11-handle and leaves the immediate recovery vulnerable near-term while below. From at trading standpoint, looking for an exhaustion low to fade heading into the FOMC interest rate decision (preferably on a test of the lower parallels) with a topside breach above the median-line needed to keep the long-bias viable. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.16 (46.22% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 7.02% higher than yesterday and 27.21% lower from last week
  • Short positions are23.20% higher than yesterday and 41.57% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD Mixed
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 2% 0%
Weekly 4% -8% -4%
Learn how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning impact trend
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Key Euro / US Data Releases

Key Euro / US Data Releases - EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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