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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Sell-off in Search of Support

Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Sell-off in Search of Support

2020-01-07 19:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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The Australian Dollar is already down more than 1% against US Dollar since the start of the week with Aussie falling for the second consecutive week after turning from a pivotal resistance zone into the start of the year. While further losses are likely, we’re looking for exhaustion on this decline IF the broader October advance is to remain viable. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie price setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted, “topside targets eyed at 7013 and the 2019 objective yearly open / 61.8% retracement at 7042/59(critical).” Price registered a high at 7032 last week before posting a weekly-reversal to snap a four-week winning streak. The move leaves the near-term risk lower, but price would need to hold this channel to remain constructive deeper into January trade.

Initial support eyed at the September trendline around ~6809/27- a region defined by the 2016 low and the 61.8% retracement of the September advance. Broader bullish invalidation for the breakout rests with the 2019 low-week close at 6768. Initial resistance stands with the high-week reversal close at 6945- a breach / close above there would be needed to shift the focus back towards 7013 and 7042/59.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar price breakout failed at a big resistance zone last week and the risk is for a deeper pullback from here before resumption. From a trading standpoint, look for possible downside exhaustion / opportunity to fade a low on a stretch lower into 6809/27 IF price is indeed heading higher. I’ll publish and updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trading levels.

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.47 (59.51% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 14.04% higher than yesterday and 20.91% higher from last week
  • Short positions are15.12% lower than yesterday and 25.05% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% -14% 6%
Weekly 37% -32% 11%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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