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GBPNZD Scalps Target Opening Range- Higher Low in Place?

GBPNZD Scalps Target Opening Range- Higher Low in Place?

2014-02-10 22:11:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • GBPNZD heading into near-term support
  • Weekly opening range in focus- Key near-term support 1.9650
  • Broader outlook bullish above 1.9460
  • Event risk on tap from UK & New Zealand this week

GBPNZD Daily Chart

Forex_GBPNZD_Scalps_Target_Opening_Range-_Higher_Low_in_Place_body_Picture_2.png, GBPNZD Scalps Target Opening Range- Higher Low in Place?

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPNZD testing near-term support
  • Weekly opening range in focus- Break to offer conviction on scalp bias
  • Interim support 1.9764, 1.9710, 1.9650/61-- bullish invalidation
  • Resistance breach above 1.9881/93 shifts scalp focus higher
  • Topside objectives 1.9986/92, 2.0052/71, 2.0331/43
  • Momentum testing support trigger / intra-week RSI in consolidation
  • Event Risk on Tap: UK Quarterly Inflation Report and New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI & Food Prices on Wednesday

GBPNZD Scalp Chart

Forex_GBPNZD_Scalps_Target_Opening_Range-_Higher_Low_in_Place_body_Picture_1.png, GBPNZD Scalps Target Opening Range- Higher Low in Place?

Notes: Last month our focus was on the 9753 support level and our scalp bias was weighted to the topside above this mark. The pair eventually rallied into a fresh multi-year high before turning around in early February to close last week just above this same level. We are neutral here to start off the week as we await a break of the weekly opening range to offer conviction on our scalp bias. Key near-term resistance stands just above the weekly opening range high at 1.9880/93 and a breach/close above this mark with RSI conviction warrants long exposure.

On a broader outlook, a new monthly low to check key support at 9650/60 should not be ruled out and may offer more favorable long entries. A break below this threshold puts us neutral again with a move sub-9460 suggesting that a more significant correction is underway.

Bottom line: our immediate focus is on a conviction break of the weekly opening range with our broader bias weighed to the topside while above 9460. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week in DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets




Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


23.6% Retrace / 100% Fib Ext / 50DMA (1.99)

Break Target 1



Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retracement / 1.618 Fib Ext

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


50% Ext / 50% Retracement

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min


Soft Pivot / 61.8% Retrace / 2.618 Ext

Break Target 5



Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 6



78.6% Retracement

Break Target 7

Daily / 30min


61.8% Extension(s)

Support Target 1



Weekly ORL / 38.2% Extension

Support Target 2



Monthly ORL

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min


50% & 78.6% Retracement(s)

Break Target 1



Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min


100% Ext / 61.8 Retrace / January Low / 200DMA

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min


38.2% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily (20)


Profit Targets 51-54pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Tuesday- Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.