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Oil Finds Near-Term Support, Gold Positioning Favors Losses

Oil Finds Near-Term Support, Gold Positioning Favors Losses

2010-05-06 09:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Crude Finds Support, May Bounce with Risk Appetite

Crude Oil (WTI)      $79.83       -$0.14       -0.18%
Prices have dropped sharply lower following a re-test of support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a Rising Wedge formation established from the low in February. Near-term support lines up at $79.13, with a break lower exposing the lower boundary of a rising channel established from mid-July 2009 (now at $76.68). Crude remains closely tied to risk sentiment, with a 20-day percent change correlation studies returning a value of 0.75. This hints that a bounce may be ahead in the near term as US equity index futures tick 0.2 percent higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall St. Weekly US jobless claims figures headline the economic calendar.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Diverge But Risk Sentiment Still Central

Gold       $1178.20       +$2.93       +0.25%
Prices have put in an Evening Star bearish candlestick formation below resistance at the top of a rising channel set from the low in February. A break past initial support in the $1161.80-1170.00 congestion region exposes $1128.71. The yellow metal seems to be trading as a safe-haven asset with the 20-day correlation between prices and the VIX Index of stock option volatility (a standby “fear” gauge), hinting that a move lower may be ahead as US stock index futures tick higher, hinting at a “risk on” session on Wall St.

Silver       $17.53      +$0.06      +0.33%
Silver is diverging from its more expensive counterpart, showing a positive relationship with risky assets. Prices have dropped below the bottom of a rising channel established from the lows in February and the $18 figure to find near-term support at $17.48. As with crude oil, a risk appetite driven bounce may be in store ahead.

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