We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.09% Silver: -0.24% Oil - US Crude: -1.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/0L8FcArgBr
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/iQhIrW1Jyz
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.18% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.21% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.24% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lCzHf4UiGB
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.31% US 500: -0.35% Germany 30: -0.41% France 40: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/d8bsIpLGXD
  • What do the technicals for $JPY look like as we head into the new year? Find out from @malkudsi, download your free quarter one forecast here today! https://t.co/00I3lH90OD https://t.co/HB6NrLCw4Z
  • #BOJ #Kuroda: Won't Hesitate to Add Easing if Momentum Towards Price Target is at Risk.
  • European Opening Calls from IG: #FTSE 7614 -0.49% #DAX 13496 -0.39% #CAC 6050 -0.48% #AEX 612 -0.43% #MIB 23848 -0.64% #IBEX 9611 -0.50% #STOXX 3783 -0.43%
  • #GBP, #NZD and #NOK are expected to be the most-active #G10 currencies against the #USD with one-week implied volatility at 7.05, 6.38 and 6.32 respectively [delayed] -BBG
  • Missed today's #AUDUSD weekly outlook webinar? See the recording here - https://t.co/qkLvokBCkS Topics included: - Impact of #coronavirus outbreak - #Davos economic forum - #Australia jobs data - AUD/USD technical analysis
  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Breakdown in the Works? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2020/01/21/EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-Euro-Breakdown-in-the-Works.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #EURUSD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/jIgzz4QjPq
US Dollar Long Positions Attractive versus Euro, Aussie on Trends

US Dollar Long Positions Attractive versus Euro, Aussie on Trends

2012-03-12 16:00:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:

The resurgent US Dollar looks to trade higher against the Euro, Australian Dollar, and other key counterparts. It looks like the next leg of USDOLLAR strength is underway and trend trades are favored.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

forex_strategy_outlook_us_dollar_long_aussie_dollar_short_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Long Positions Attractive versus Euro, Aussie on Trends

DailyFX PLUS System Trading SignalsThe Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) has rallied to start the week, setting the stage for further strength as we see important risk of further AUDUSD and EURUSD weakness. Two weeks ago we claimed that the Euro may have topped against the US Dollar based on an important shift in speculative sentiment. That analysis still holds, and trend trades remain favored in the days ahead.

In terms of individual strategies, ‘Trend Follower’ and ‘Tidal Shift’ stand to do well amidst sharp price moves. To a similar extent, ‘Breakout Opportunities’ could pick up on sharp intraday moves. Two weeks ago we wrote that we like long ‘riks’ trades. Yet the opposite is now true as it seems the safe-haven US Dollar can continue higher.

We now favor further US Dollar strength against the Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Japanese Yen.

Market Conditions:

Volatility expectations have picked up as of late but remain low by historical standards. This admittedly complicates our US Dollar-bullish view. If volatility levels remain depressed, the safe-haven USD will tend to do poorly. We will keep a close eye on the next week of market moves.

forex_strategy_outlook_us_dollar_long_aussie_dollar_short_body_Picture_2.png, US Dollar Long Positions Attractive versus Euro, Aussie on Trends

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact David, e-mail drodriguez@dailyfx.com

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list for this and other reports, e-mail subject line “Distribution List” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.