0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇪 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • 🇨🇳 FDI (YTD) YoY (JUL) Actual: 0.5% Previous: -1.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/6b3JtrSQnP
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/9:30 AM GMT to learn about how you can become a better trader. Register here: https://t.co/WeWGKtdlyz https://t.co/4hIQtGPL0N
  • Gold Prices May Resume Selloff After Digesting Largest Drop in 7 Years - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/08/13/Gold-Prices-May-Resume-Selloff-After-Digesting-Largest-Drop-in-7-Years.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #XAUUSD #gold https://t.co/aWOvE1KJXc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.83%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.46%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EQ77jevtaX
  • Heads Up:🇫🇷 IEA Oil Market Report due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
  • Hey traders! I'm sure you've all heard about trend trading. Sharpen your knowledge here: https://t.co/jkliL5sxj7 https://t.co/QPW1os7wbE
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.98% Gold: 0.60% Oil - US Crude: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/gDZGfvBOHv
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.21% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/9IwXKOUieT
Dow Jones and DAX Hinged to Trade Wars, Potential Auto Tariffs

Dow Jones and DAX Hinged to Trade Wars, Potential Auto Tariffs

2019-02-17 10:00:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst
Share:

Stock Market Talking Points:

  • US and China trade talks in Beijing concluded Friday with significant progress cited
  • Earnings from Walmart on Tuesday will offer further insight into the retail picture for the Dow Jones
  • Germany’s DAX will look to avoid US auto tariffs

Dow Jones Fundamental Outlook

Forecast: Bullish

The Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed a series of bullish fundamental developments in the latter half of last week. An agreement to avoid another partial government shutdown was signed Thursday and positive trade war progress with China was heralded Friday. The President did his part to provide the market with optimism saying, “we are very close to a deal with China.” Subsequently, US indices enjoyed a slight rally to close the week higher.

Check out our interactive infographic A Brief Trade War History for insight on the current economic conflict and how future ones may develop.

Despite the apparent trade war progress, threats remain. As US equity traders know, optimistic comments from the President do not always translate to material agreements. If the same head fake occurs again this week, expect some trade war worries to pressure the index lower.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January 2018 – February 2019) (Chart 1)

Dow Jones

Learn about the differences between the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Other events for the Dow include Walmart earnings on Tuesday. The report could shed some light on the pitiful retail data released last week. Later in the week, FOMC minutes are due Wednesday. Fed minutes are always a hotly anticipated data release and the week ahead is no exception. As for their impact on equities, balance sheet commentary and a surprise increase in hawkishness (very unlikely) are two areas to lookout for.

Looking for a technical perspective on Equity? Check out the Weekly Equity Technical Forecast.

Germany – A New Trade War Front?

Forecast: Mixed

Last week I highlighted the precarious situation Germany and the German DAX found themselves in. On the precipice of a recession, GDP data came in as expected and thus a technical recession was narrowly avoided. With one risk in the rearview mirror the DAX now faces another, largely outside of its control. The United States’ Section 232 deadline is slated for February 17th and the Department of Commerce will present their findings on the national security threat of Eurozone autos. If the department finds them to be a legitimate threat, the US could impose auto tariffs on EU automobile exports.

Think the stock market is headed for a crash? Learn some bear market trading strategies and techniques.

Given the position of the DAX and Germany’s economy, such a move could prove deadly for the index. German automakers account for roughly 10-12% of the equity index. BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler AG are deeply integrated in the US market and generate significant revenue from the region. Thus, any escalation from the US would likely be met with retaliatory measures from Germany, effectively starting another round of tit-for-tat measures and another front in the US trade war. Follow me on Twitter @PeterHanksFX for commentary and updates on Section 232 progress and the impact on the DAX along with the Dow.

DAX 30 Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (September 2016 – February 2019) (Chart 2)

DAX 30

Read more: Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact Peter on Twitter at @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Yen are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introduction to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast –May Head Lower If RBA Jawboning Starts Anew

Oil Forecast – Price Tied to Non-OPEC Supply Concerns, Lower Demand

British Pound Forecast – Sterling Struggles as the Brexit Clock Ticks

US Dollar Forecast –Needs Sentiment Consistency to Set Lasting Trend

Gold Forecast – Gold Bull-Flag Formation Continues to Unfold Ahead of FOMC Minutes

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.