News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GC3sr4bk5B
  • - Recovery in the US is improving - The increase in Covid cases is concerning, but vaccines give optimism for a return to more normal conditions later this year
  • - Fed bond buying is at a pace "unrelated to magnitude of fiscal deficits" - Low Treasury yields show there is strong global demand for stable and liquid investments
  • Fed Chair Powell: - Too low inflation harms American families and businesses - We do not anticipate high inflation, but have the tools to address pressures if they arise #Fed $USD
  • looking forward to this, webinar starts in an hour. Topics on the radar: 1) USD Q2 Weakness 2) Gold brewing bullish potential? 3) Stonks through initial earnings outlays https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 https://t.co/6YNhrv8E31
  • Please join @JStanleyFX at 13:00 EST/17:00 GMT for a webinar on trading price action. Register here: https://t.co/rFhWzz0pIy https://t.co/glXTOZWi5i
  • 🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (MAR) Actual: 5.4% Expected: 5.6% Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.16% FTSE 100: 0.11% France 40: -0.00% Wall Street: -0.90% US 500: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7h5ZfhUZAv
  • $Gold pull back didn't quite get back to that area of prior resistance. But a couple of confluent fibo levels have come into play 1763-1766 https://t.co/klQZ7R6n1Z https://t.co/vBpKjqgRvd
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (MAR) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.6% Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Crude Oil Talking Points:

  • The IEA found demand to be constant from the month prior, despite many agency’s warning of slower growth
  • Other energy agencies like OPEC and the EIA have recently lowered their demand expectations
  • With the two pricing factors at odds, the price of crude oil could come under pressure

Interested in trading Crude oil, Bitcoin or the Dow Jones? Learn specific trading strategies with ourDailyFX Trading Guides.

Crude oil may slide in the coming months as energy agencies continue to forecast a crude market swamped with supply at a time when demand has wavered. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported their monthly prognosis of the oil market on Wednesday and the findings echoed concerns of recent reports from OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). While OPEC and the EIA lowered their most recent demand expectations, the IEA maintained the same figures from January at 1.4 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil Supply Chart: IEA (Chart 1)

crude oil supply chart

On the supply side, the agency highlighted the headline factors that may drive crude lower in the coming quarters. “The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the group’s production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran,” the agency said. Despite the already considerable increase in crude production outside of OPEC, the IEA again raised its forecasts for supply from non-OPEC members in the month ahead. The estimate increased to 1.8 million barrels per day in 2019, from 1.6 million barrels per day previously.

One key uncertainty in the crude oil market is Venezuela. The OPEC member faces a multitude of sanctions from the United States and political uncertainty as the current President faces mounting pressure from the public and other countries to step down. Should the issue be resolved quickly, crude production could return to levels seen in prior years and flood the market further. On the other hand, a prolonged struggle may sap even more production from the country and drain some of the excess supply in the market. Either way, the situation will be important to watch as the struggle unfolds.

Crude Oil Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January 2018 – February 2019) (Chart 2)

Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

Despite the ominous report crude closed slightly higher than it opened Wednesday, marginally below $54.00. That said, Crude’s price remains considerably lower than its altitude in October when it traded north of $75.00. Recent concerns of waning global growth helped to drive the price lower on the demand side, and the supply glut offered by non-OPEC members may look to keep it pressured for the foreseeable future.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES