We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.89%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.42%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5V2W1dOsju
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.37% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/gz9kHUlzLu
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.03% Wall Street: -0.04% Germany 30: -0.06% France 40: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vqDHe5UIBO
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/aT8TZjlFqP https://t.co/xIBfALzMg3
  • What is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and why does it matter to Asian markets? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/09/17/Asia-FX-Markets-Eye-RCEP-Trade-Talks-as-Regional-Growth-Sputters.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/7o1dCvz3d6
  • The Singapore Dollar is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the $SGD and how to trade it from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/FzPUyH8bq6
  • Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi has said he wants the US to put in writing that it will refrain from imposing auto tariffs against Japan - Reuters (JIJI) #JPY
  • #DidYouKnow traders generally prefer using candlestick charts for day-trading because they offer an enjoyable visual perception of price. Find out how you can utilize it in your trading strategy here: https://t.co/yFn12QgmxO https://t.co/f4f915g643
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.30% Gold: 0.14% Oil - US Crude: -1.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/vfGcTFIcZ1
  • [correction] Japan's Motegi has confirmed that there are no new auto tariffs in the finalized trade agreement between the US and Japan -BBG #JPY #USD
Gold Bull-Flag Formation Continues to Unfold Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Bull-Flag Formation Continues to Unfold Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2019-02-16 22:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Gold

Gold Talking Points

Gold quickly approaches the 2019-high ($1326) as fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. economy dampen bets for a Federal Reserve rate-hike, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may continue to shake up the near-term outlook for bullion as a bull-flag formation appears to be panning out.

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

Gold breaks out of a narrow range as the 1.2% drop in U.S. Retail Sales along with the unexpected contraction in Industrial Production curbs the FOMC’s scope to implement higher interest rates, and it seems as though the central bank will continue to change its tune over the coming months amid the weakening outlook for growth and inflation.

Blue chip Economic Indicators

After accounting for the dismal data prints, the Atlanta Fed’s ‘GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.5 percent on February 14, down from 2.7 percent on February 6,’ and signs of a more meaningful slowdown may continue to drag on interest-rate expectations as a growing number of Fed officials endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.

At the same time, the Fed appears to be on track to taper the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) as Governor Lael Brainard indicates that the ‘balance-sheet normalization process probably should come to an end later this year, and it seems as though there’s a growing consensus at the central bank to conclude the normalization cycle ahead of schedule amid the ‘cross-currents’ surrounding the economic outlook.

Looking for a technical perspective on Gold? Check out the Weekly Gold Technical Forecast.

Target rate probabilities fed meeting

In turn, market participants may pay increased attention to the FOMC Minutes amid the material change in central bank rhetoric, and a further shift in the forward-guidance may heighten the appeal of gold especially as Fed Fund Futures shows the central bank on hold throughout 2019. With that said, gold may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior over the coming days, with the topside targets on the radar as the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI)continue to track the upward trends from late-2018.Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Daily Chart

Gold daily chart

Gold appears to be on its way to test the 2019-high ($1326) as the former-resistance zone around $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement) offers support, with the RSI highlighting a similar dynamic as it responds to trendline support. In turn, the $1328 (50% expansion) hurdle is back on the radar, with a break/close above the stated region opening up the $1340 (61.8% expansion) area.

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast –May Head Lower If RBA Jawboning Starts Anew

Oil Forecast – Price Tied to Non-OPEC Supply Concerns, Lower Demand

British Pound Forecast – Sterling Struggles as the Brexit Clock Ticks

US Dollar Forecast –Needs Sentiment Consistency to Set Lasting Trend

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.