Guest Commentary: MarketVisionTV - USDJPY - Too High To Buy?
We still believe the Dollar remains in solid uptrend and well positioned to attempt the initial declining wedge target of 85.50. The downside price compression ended with the drop to 75.55. Whether the strong intervention rally to 79.55 is a major wave I that we have labeled here or just an A wave rally seems irrelevant at this point. The downside correction was deep and protracted with an erratic decline to hold the 76.00 level. Hence we are now looking for a solid five wave uptrend sequence as a larger wave three or a C wave. We believe wave one in the rally ended with the initial push to 81.65. As is often the case when the underlying uptrend is strong on solid fundamentals, the minor wave two proved an irregular correction. The initial A wave ended with the dip to 80.00, a B wave high at 81.85 and a shallow C wave to 80.60 to complete the correction. Under this scenario wave one was 5.65 Yen. As first waves are rarely the longest, that projects a 3 equals one target of 85.65 but with the potential for a 150 percent extension to 88.50. Only below the initial 81.65 peak would diffuse this bullish view and threaten the 79.55 pivot point.
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