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Short Term Gold Correlations Track Risk Currencies as Fed Denies QE3

Short Term Gold Correlations Track Risk Currencies as Fed Denies QE3

2012-02-27 02:36:00
David Liu, Technical Strategist
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The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship. Colored values indicate week-to-week changes of over 30%.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

3 Day 15 Min

0.30

0.58

0.69

0.65

0.34

-0.69

-0.69

1 Week 60 Min

0.68

0.24

0.67

0.86

-0.11

-0.85

-0.86

2 Week 60 Min

-0.35

0.15

0.22

0.47

-0.06

0.21

-0.48

1 Month Daily

0.46

-0.18

0.34

0.57

-0.13

0.10

-0.60

Gold-Forex Correlations for the previous week can be found here.

Weekly Commentary: Although gold correlations with major pairs remained weaker in the long term, there are some signs of a recovery in the overall trend in shorter term timeframes. As longer term correlations trend against riskier currencies, gold is also following more of an anti-dollar stance. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanake’s testimony in front of congress giving a reduced scope of asset purchases, leading to the largest drop in spot gold prices in 3 months.

The divergence of correlations between gold and major pairs may continue following the ECB’s LTRO operations, which offered EUR 529.5 billion in loans to regional banks. Expectations are for these new Euro loans to dilute the value of the common currency while help higher yielding currencies as banks shift holdings into higher yielding assets.

Gold-Forex_Correlations_03052012_Short_Term_Rises_With_Yield_body_Picture_1.png, Short Term Gold Correlations Track Risk Currencies as Fed Denies QE3Gold-Forex_Correlations_03052012_Short_Term_Rises_With_Yield_body_Picture_2.png, Short Term Gold Correlations Track Risk Currencies as Fed Denies QE3

-- Written by David Liu, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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