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Australian Dollar Follows Commodities Higher As Relief Rally Takes Form

Australian Dollar Follows Commodities Higher As Relief Rally Takes Form

2010-05-27 18:49:00
John Rivera, Currency Analyst


The Australian dollar has gained over 3% against the dollar and yen on the day as a return of risk appetite was fueled by China’s commitment to investing in the Euro-Zone. An improved outlook for global growth helped lift commodity prices which continue to be the main driver of price action for the AUD/USD, despite its correlation weakening to 64% from 70%. The current bullish push may just be a temporary retracement following the extended bearish decline but could develop into a longer relief rally. Meanwhile, Interest rate expectations for Australia could be a weighing factor as they have fallen sharply since the end of April. The outlook for yields would reach as low as -1 and with price action following suit the relationship between them has strengthen to 27% from 12% a month ago.


RBA Interest Rate Expectations

The RBA is expected to keep rates on hold next week following their policy meeting which could mark an end to their tightening cycle. The central bank rose rates six times by a quarter point, bringing their target rate to 4.25%, and making it one of the highest yielders. Policy makers currently view rates at average levels and will mostly likely pause until they see inflation begin to accelerate. Therefore, the May inflation readings scheduled for release on May 31st could have an impact on interest rate expectations and present event risk ahead of the policy meeting. Regardless, non-action by the central bank could weigh on the com-dollar. Discuss this and trading ideas join the AUD/USD forum.


FOMC Interest Rate Expectations

The second reading of U.S. GDP was revised lower to 3.0% from 3.4% led by a decrease in personal consumption from 3.6% to 3.5%. A weaker than expected recovery failed to dim the outlook for interest rate any further, as broader optimism on the back of comments from China offset domestic weakness. Indeed, the troubles in Europe have raised concerns over global growth and that has markets pricing in very little potential for a Fed rate hike until the end of the year. Fed fund futures have the odds of tightening beginning in November at 22.5% which most likely pushes out a change in policy to 2011.



Commodity markets were up across the globe with oil and cooper leading the way as the comments from China sparked a broad base retracement of risky assets. The troubles in Europe are concerning but markets are still trying to determine to what level it will impact the global economy. We may continue to see volatility as sentiment swings back and forth, with relief that progress is being made in the region currently driving sentiment. However, once we start to see signs that growth is being impacted by the reduction in government spending, the flight to safety could resume. The RJ/CRB index has bounced from support at the September 2009 low of 247 with short-term potential above 265.00 which could translate into more Australian dollar gains. Discuss this and other fundamental data in the Economics Forum.


To discuss this report or be added to the email list contact John Rivera, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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