THE TAKEAWAY: German exports down 3.4% in November, more than expected -> Exports to other Euro-zone countries down 5.6% annually -> Euro trading steady
German exports declined at the sharpest rate in over a year in November, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Exports were down 3.4%, worse than an expected 0.5% drop in exports and a reversal of October’s revised 0.2% rise in exports. The trade balance still rose to 17.0 billion Euros, as imports dropped 3.7% in November.
Compared with November 2011, exports to the European Union are down 4.0%, while exports to the Euro-zone are down 5.7% annually. Outside of the European Union, exports are up 5.6% from November 2011, as there is no difference in total export levels from November 2011 to November 2012.
The export data shows that beyond German taxpayers partially footing the bill for bailouts of weaker Euro-zone countries, the debt crisis has also affected the German economy by preventing a rise in exports over the previous year. The ECB predicts that the Euro-zone will only stabilize well into 2013, which would be good for the German economy. Signs of economic growth in Germany or the Euro-zone would be Euro-positive.
However, the Euro did not significantly react to the lower than expected exports. The single currency is currently trading slightly higher than 1.3100 against the US Dollar in Forex markets. Resistance might be provided by 1.3158, which has provided resistance over the past few months.
EURUSD Daily: January 8, 2013
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