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Strategy Video: A Medium-Term EURUSD Opportunity Takes Shape

Strategy Video: A Medium-Term EURUSD Opportunity Takes Shape

2014-04-18 00:55:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• A liquidity drain has exacerbated low volatility levels, but activity is extreme even on a longer term

• Market conditions dictate that a rebound in volatility is very likely in the coming weeks

• Fundamentals behind the Euro in the meantime suggest that move is more likely to be bearish EURUSD

Find out what event risk can generate volatility or feed the major trends behind the Euro and EURUSD with the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

The week opened with a bearish EURUSD gap driven by the ECB's threat of monetary policy to arrest the currency's rise. While Draghi's connection between a high exchange rate and inflation is still just an undefined threat, the backdrop is starting to align for a larger turn for this benchmark pair. Even adjusted for the low liquidity holiday conditions, volatility behind this pair is extremely low and prone to normalization - in other words a breakout and momentum. Technicals present prevailing trends and a clear wedge. And, fundamentals present a growing bias. We look at the forecast and trade opportunity for the currency market's most liquid pair in today's Strategy Video.

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