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Strategy Video: Euro Faces a Bearish 1Q but Choose Your Pair Wisely

Strategy Video: Euro Faces a Bearish 1Q but Choose Your Pair Wisely

2014-12-26 22:09:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The Euro will end 2014 significantly lower against all the majors except for the Yen

•A EURJPY divergence highlights the impact monetary policy has had this past year and will have in 2015

• While a stimulus-minded ECB will be a big Euro selling factor, so too will risk trends and Eurozone fear

Read Christopher Vecchio and Kristian Kerr's forecast for the Euro heading into the 1Q of 2015.

The Euro is the second worst performing major for 2014, and its losses will likely be extended - and perhaps intensify - heading into the new year. With benchmark exchange rates like EURUSD and EURGBP standing on the threshold of major technical supports (1.2000 and 0.7750 respectively), the fundamental outlook is set to dim dramatically. The source for much of the shared currency's losses this past year - and the reason EURJPY is the only cross actually up on the year - monetary policy will be a proactive catalyst in 2015 as the ECB targets a full QE program. However, the most ominous threats are those that are yet unrealized: general risk aversion and a renewed 'Eurozone crisis' sentiment. We discuss the Euro outlook for 1Q 2015 and beyond in the weekend Strategy Video along with what themes will be most important with key pairs.

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