Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Gold Price Technical Forecast: Gold Rally Faces First Major Test

Gold Price Technical Forecast: Gold Rally Faces First Major Test

What's on this page

Gold Technical Price Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels


Gold prices have rallied more than 6.3% off the yearly lows with XAU/USD attempting to mark a third consecutive weekly advance. A recovery off trend support is now approaching technical downtrend resistance and we’re looking for a reaction just higher for guidance early in the month.These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly technical price chart heading into August. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that XAU/USD had, “plunged through major uptrend support and remains vulnerable to further declines while below the 2018 / 2019 trendline. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards 1671/82– rallies / recoveries should be capped by 1791 IF price is heading lower on this stretch.” Gold registered a low at 1680 the following week before rebounding sharply with the rally now approaching the January low-week close at 1791- we looking for possible price inflection into this threshold IF reached.

Key resistance / bearish invalidation rests just higher at the confluence of the 100% extension, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 52-week moving average 1818/28. A breach / weekly close above this threshodl would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / a larger turn may be underway. Initial weekly support now back at the 2021 / 2022 low-week closes at 1727/29 with key support steady at 1671/82- note that weakness beyond this threshold could see fuel another accelerated decline in gold with such a scenario exposing the 2020 March reversal close at 1631.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly Gold Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off downtrend support and we’re looking for a reaction / possible inflection on a stretch towards yearly downtrend resistance / 1818/28. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited by 1727 IF price is indeed heading higher. Stay nimble into the close of the week with US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday likely to charge some volatility here. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +5.45 (84.49% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are2.28% higher than yesterday and 13.59% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.79% lower than yesterday and 24.57% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 8% 0%
Weekly -14% 19% -2%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

Active Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.