Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Bears Face Trend Support

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Bears Face Trend Support

What's on this page

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD holds downtrend support for a fourth week – risk for price inflection
  • Aussie resistance 6991-7016, 7187-7206 (key), 7270- Support 6785, 6660/70 (key), 6461

The Australian Dollar rallied more than 2% off the yearly / monthly lows against the US Dollar with AUD/USD responding to downtrend support for the past month. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable here and the threat for a recovery rises while above the weekly open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts this week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Dec 22
( 13:12 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT
Short-term Trading Strategy Webinar
Register for Webinar
Join Now
Webinar Has Ended

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast we noted that AUD/USD was testing a key support pivot with our focus on the weekly close with respect to 6991- 7016- a region defined by the November 2020 swing low, the objective 2020 yearly open, the 2021 lows and the January low-week close. We warned that, “On the other-side of 6991, and things could fall apart rather quickly- stay nimble here.” Aussie registered a close lower that week with price plunging nearly 4.5% before exhausting just below above the 2008 low-week close / 2019 low at 6660/70. Note that AUD/USD has been unable to mark a weekly close below the lower parallel and keeps price just above downtrend support. A good price / time for near-term exhaustion?

Initial weekly resistance now stands back at 6691/7016 with broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 decline / 52-week moving average at 7187-72056. Weekly open support rests at 6785 with a break / close below 6660 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price- such a scenario would expose the next key support objective at the 61.8% retracement around 6460s.

AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Aussie Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: AUD/USD is / has been testing downtrend support on building momentum divergence for nearly four weeks now and the immediate short-bias may be vulnerable while above the lower parallel. From at trading standpoint, rallies should be capped by 7000 IF price is still heading lower on this stretch with a weekly close below 6660 needed to mark resumption. I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie vs US Dollar Trader Positioning - AUDUSD Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +2.05 (67.26% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 1.78% lower than yesterday and 17.18% lower from last week
  • Short positions are3.88% higher than yesterday and 19.74% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
AUD/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% -2% 8%
Weekly -4% -5% -4%
Learn how shifts in Aussie retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.