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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Breakout Stalls at Trend Resistance

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Breakout Stalls at Trend Resistance

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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Gold price updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • XAU/USD breakout testing confluent trend resistance into 1785- constructive above 1720
  • New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold prices have surged more than 6.2% off the March lows with a breakout in XAU/USD now probing more confluent uptrend resistance. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the days ahead as the bulls risk near-term price exhaustion. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into the April opening-range. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we highlighted the threat of a larger XAU/USD breakout into the April open while noting that, “Key resistance objectives remain at the 1764/67 Fibonacci confluence with a breach / close above the February opening-range lows at 1785 needed to suggest a more significant reversal is underway.” The gold rally pressed higher in the following days with price registering a high at 1790 yesterday before exhausting into confluent trend resistance.

The immediate focus is on the break of the 1764-1785 range with the bulls vulnerable while below the upper parallel. Daily support rests at the median-line with bullish invalidation now raised to the 61.8% retracement at 1720. A topside breach / close above the weekly opening-range highs would be needed to mark resumption of the monthly uptrend towards the 100% extension at 1804- look for a larger reaction there for guidance.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD continuing to trade within the confines of the ascending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the March lows with the upper parallel further highlighting confluence resistance at 1785. A break below support here at 1763 would risk a larger correction towards the median-line backed by the March high-close at 1745 and the 50% retracement at 1735- both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

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Gold Forecast
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Bottom line: The gold rally may be vulnerable here into confluent technical resistance at 1785. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – pullbacks should be limited to the lower parallel / 1720 IF price is indeed heading higher with a close above 1804 needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / a larger trend reversal is underway. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Bearish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% -11% -3%
Weekly 2% -13% -5%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.