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WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook: Breakout Eyes Resistance- Bulls at Risk

WTI Crude Oil Price Outlook: Breakout Eyes Resistance- Bulls at Risk

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

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Oil prices have surged more than 11% off the March low with a breakout of a multi-month downtrend taking WTI into initial resistance targets. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the days ahead below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Daily - USOil Trade Outlook - CL Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: A breach above the March trendline/ April opening-range last week shifted the focus higher in crude prices with the rally extending into key confluence resistance at 63.85-64.55 – a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the yearly high-day reversal close. We’re looking for possible inflection off this zone with a breach / close above needed to keep the immediate advance viable towards the 2019 high-week close / 2021 high close at 66.14/26.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI 120min

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI 120min - USOil Trade Outlook - CL Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Crude price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a modified-ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March low with the median further highlighting resistance into the 63.85-64.55 zone. Initial support at 62.60 backed by 61.33 – look for downside exhaustion ahead of this zone IF oil prices are indeed heading higher. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 61.8% retracement / 2018 open at 59.77-60.06. A breach higher from here keeps the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at 65.71-66.26 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The crude oil rally may be vulnerable in the days ahead as price extends into the first major resistance zone. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for possible downside exhaustion ahead of the lower parallel with a breach / close above 64.55 needed to mark resumption of the monthly rally. Ultimately, a close below the objective monthly open at 59.42 would be considered terminal for this advance. Review my latest Crude Oil Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - USOil Retail Positioning - CL Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +1.37 (57.74% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are unchanged than yesterday and 11.38% lower from last week
  • Short positions areunchanged than yesterday and 17.30% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet trader are more net-short than last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Active Technical Setups

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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