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Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Plummets into Support– Bears Face NFP

Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Plummets into Support– Bears Face NFP

Michael Boutros,
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Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Near-term Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Daily & 120min Charts
  • USD/MXN sell-off testing confluence support at March range lows– NFP on tap
  • Key support at 20.2813/3454 into April open– Broader bearish invalidation 20.9572

The Mexican Peso surged more than 6.2% against the US Dollar since the March highs in USD/MXN with price now probing key support back at the monthly lows ahead of major US event risk tomorrow and amid thin holiday trading conditions. We’re looking for possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN technical price charts heading into April trade. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Peso setup and more.

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Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Daily

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Daily - US Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Mexican Peso Price Outlook we noted that USD/MXN had plunged into, “confluence uptrend support and leaves the immediate short-bias vulnerable while above 20.2812/3454,” – a region defined by the 61.8% extension of the March decline and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range. Price registered a low at 20.2800 before rebounding sharply with USD/MXNB rallying more than 3.3% off the lows before faltering at the 50% retracement of the monthly decline at 20.9572- a six-day sell-off now takes price back into key support once again at 20.2812/3454. We’re on the lookout for possible inflection here with NFPs on tap tomorrow.

Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN 120min

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN 120min - US Dollar vs Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Peso price action shows USD/MXN highlights this week’s decline into the March lows / key support. Weekly open resistance stands at 20.6274 backed by the March open at 20.8556 with bearish invalidation now lowered to 20.9572. A break lower / close lower keeps the focus on 20.1310, the objective yearly open at 19.8939 and the low day close at 19.7222. Two equal-legs off the high would yield a stretch into the 100% extension at 19.6136- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

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Bottom line: The April open sees USD/MXN testing confluence support at the March range lows after breaking the yearly uptrend- immediate decline may be vulnerable into this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops- look for topside exhaustion ahead of the weekly open IF price is heading lower. Stay nimble into the April opening-range with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap heading into the extended holiday weekend- tread lightly.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy


Key US / Mexico Data Releases

Key US / Mexico Data Releases - USD/MXN Economic Calendar - Dollar / Peso Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.