Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Key Support- Loonie Bulls Beware

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Key Support- Loonie Bulls Beware

What's on this page

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • USD/CAD rebounds off confluence downtrend support – risk for near-term recovery
  • Resistance / bearish invalidation at 1.3056 - Critical support steady at 1.2579-1.2619

The Canadian Dollar is down more than 0.6% against the US Dollar into the weekly open with USD/CAD building on a recovery off downtrend support last week. Is this just a bear market rally or is a larger reversal underway? These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price chart heading into the start of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted the risk for continued USD/CAD weakness into the yearly open while highlighting key, “confluence support at the 2018 yearly open / 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 advance at 1.2579-1.2619 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.” Price registered a low at 1.2629 last week before rebounding- so is a more near-term low in?

Initial weekly resistance eyed at the objective 2020 yearly open at 1.2975 backed the 61.8% retracement / channel resistance at 1.3057 – a breach / weekly close above this confluence zone is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. Key support remains unchanged with a weekly close below 1.2579 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 1.24-handle and 1.2358.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download Our Latest Quarterly Dollar Price Forecasts!
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The USD/CAD breakdown may be losing steam here as price responds to confluence downtrend support. From a trading standpoint, the threat for a larger recovery remains while above 1.2579 – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3057 IF price is indeed heading lower. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.78 (64.05% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 7.33% lower than yesterday and 10.17% lower from last week
  • Short positions are29.75% higher than yesterday and 11.73% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 12% -9% -1%
Weekly -8% 16% 3%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


US / Canada Economic Calendar

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Data Releases - Loonie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.