News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/JPY strengthening during trade, adding to an impressive run for the Dollar/Yen pair in 2021 https://t.co/xHRuS8D2i0
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: -0.21% Oil - US Crude: -0.21% Gold: -1.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4hoyPt34ex
  • The latest CFTC positioning data for the week ending March 2nd saw speculators continue to unwind their US Dollar net shorts. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/S3Kx4OBphE https://t.co/fejOV0AXYv
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.43%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/klgOuNPYtk
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.45% US 500: 0.20% France 40: -0.10% Germany 30: -0.25% FTSE 100: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/umSIPmSxrY
  • $EURCAD has continued to head lower today, now trading right around the 1.5000 level. The pair hit a fresh one-year low, currently trading at its lowest level since early March of last year. $EUR $CAD https://t.co/Oj9JYasyTU
  • US Indices are rebounding from last week's sell off today. The Dow is leading the way, rising to a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq remains negative for the day. DOW +2.00% NDX -0.55% SPX +0.91% RUT +1.70% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • Another look at the deviation in 'internal' interest in US equities: the candle is the Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 ratio ($NDX-$SPX) overlaid with the S&P 500 itself in blue https://t.co/m2WK4Q2Bs5
  • A notable deviation in direction from the tech-heavy Nadex composite (candle) overlaid with the S&P 500 in blue. The 5-day correlation is still holding up but will start deviating fast at this pace https://t.co/VYY5imk1yS
  • $USD has been pretty strong over the past couple of weeks and to a lesser degree, so far in 2021 but we've only retraced about 23.6% of that massive sell-off that started last March $DXY https://t.co/t5KRSYu0TP
Oil Price Outlook: Crude Breakout Spills into 2021- Resistance Ahead

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Breakout Spills into 2021- Resistance Ahead

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

  • Crude Oilupdated technical trade levels – Weekly Chart
  • WTI breakout extends into yearly open– risk for inflection off near-term uptrend resistance
  • New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Oil-Beginners Guide
Advertisement

Oil prices have surged more than 51% off the November lows with WTI rallying to fresh multi-monthly highs into the 2020 open. The oil breakout is now testing initial uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Mar 10
( 14:03 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Market Check Up with Michael Boutros
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - CL Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast,

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Oil Price Outlook we noted that the recovery in WTI was approaching technical downtrend resistance at, “42.02/43.08- a region defined by the 2017 low / low-week close. Note that the upper parallel converges on this range in the weeks ahead and further highlights the technical significance of this key resistance zone with the multi-month rally at risk while into this threshold.” Crude prices held below this level for nearly three months before breaking out in late-November with the subsequent rally trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending June / November lows.

The advance is now approaching confluence resistance at the upper parallel / June 2019 lows at ~50.58- looking for inflection off this zone for guidance. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable towards the 2016 high at 54.48 and the 2020 high-week reversal close at 59.16. Weekly support rests along the 75% parallel (currently near ~47.30s) with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to 42.02-43.08.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest Crude Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The oil price breakout is now testing the first major resistance confluence and we’re looking for a reaction up here. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for downside exhaustion ahead of the median-line on pullbacks IF price is indeed heading higher with a weekly close above the upper parallel needed to keep the bulls in control. Stay nimble heading into the close of the week as price carves out the monthly opening-range.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short crude oil - the ratio stands at -1.61 (38.28% of traders are long) – typically bullish reading
  • Long positions are 26.16% lower than yesterday and 18.23% lower from last week
  • Short positions are44.94% higher than yesterday and 28.72% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias.
Oil - US Crude MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 15% -15% -5%
Weekly -12% 9% -1%
Learn how shifts in Oil retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Learn how to Trade with Confidence - Free Trading Guide
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES