News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • ECB policymakers were out in force last week, saying they were watching Eurozone government bond yields, but yields rose anyway, and that’s positive for $EURUSD and the Euro crosses. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/nJdh9dA1HM https://t.co/peLh7zTTiz
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/vs7ypHHwya
  • The GBP rally vs USD came to an abrupt end and reversal; this sets cable up for more selling in the week ahead. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/Ee9PSppnd2 https://t.co/uaiCiEHBMs
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into the new year? Find out with your free guide here: https://t.co/e7udCTJlmf #DailyfxGuides https://t.co/OXUgYIl2ru
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/xncree8XaW
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/gGOU1RVQzq
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/wrI29FTN41
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/UzzC1bGzRJ
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/46bdHdOmOV
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/6FokpDbL65
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Rally Rips to Resistance / 2020 Open

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Rally Rips to Resistance / 2020 Open

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD rebounds off multi-month downtrend support– recovery eyes yearly open resistance
  • Key near-term resistance at 1.2994 – Weekly-open support 1.2782
Advertisement

The Canadian Dollar is off more than 1% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/CAD mounting the first major counter-offensive off technical support. The recovery keeps price within the broader downtrend and we’re looking for a more significant inflection in price on a stretch higher into yearly open resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts heading into the close of the year. Review my latest Strategy Webinarfor an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Mar 01
( 13:03 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Trade Outlook - Loonie Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that, “we’re looking for a possible near-term low in price closer to downtrend support,” as USD/CAD plummeted into the December open. A test of the lower parallel on building momentum divergence held the lows days later with breach back above the October 2018 low at 1.2782 fueling a larger recovery in the US Dollar.

The breach of the median-line of the descending pitchforkformation extending off the September / October highs keeps the focus on confluence resistance at the upper parallel / 2020 yearly open / December open at 1.2975/94- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place with such a scenario exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3057 and longer-term channel resistance at the November swing high near 1.3172.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Trade Outlook - Loonie Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD breaking / testing the median-line as support with the advance now approaching confluence resistance at 1.2975/94 – be on the lookout for inflection off this zone. Initial support now back at 1.2884 backed by 1.2783/96- a break below this threshold would suggest resumption of the broader downtrend towards the yearly low-day close at 1.2695 and the 78.9% retracement at 1.2619.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Bottom line: USD/CAD has rebounded off downtrend support with the recovery now approaching multi-month downtrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch into yearly / monthly open resistance at 1.2975/94- be on the lookout for inflection there for guidance IF reached with a breach / close above needed to suggest a larger Loonie price reversal is underway. Ultimately a close below 1.2782 would be needed to threaten another run at the lows. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Trade Outlook - Loonie Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +2.29 (69.63% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are13.89% higher than yesterday and 23.83% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 4.40% lower than yesterday and 20.63% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -26% 19% -15%
Weekly -33% 43% -18%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Relases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES