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Bitcoin Outlook: The Crypto Shakeout– BTC/USD Searches for Support

Bitcoin Outlook: The Crypto Shakeout– BTC/USD Searches for Support

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Bitcoin Technical Price Outlook: BTC/USD Trade Levels


Bitcoin prices plummeted more than 16% month-to-date with BTC/USD now eyeing more significant technical support objectives near the yearly lows. The cryptocurrency shakeout may be maturing here and we’re on the lookout for downside exhaustion on a stretch lower in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the BTC/USD technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Bitcoin setup and more.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Bitcoin Price Chart - BTC/USD Daily - Cryptocurrency Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros (log scale), Technical Strategist; Bitcoin on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Bitcoin Price Outlook we noted that the Bitcoin sell-ff was halted, “at the 1.618% extension / 2021 low-day close at 30655-32005 – this support zone remains critical.” A rebound of more than 33% off the lows failed into downtrend resistance in mid-June with BTC/USD now attempting to mark the first daily close below the 30655 support zone since January- the threat remains for further losses while below the median-line / July open at 35059.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD 240min

Bitcoin Price Chart - BTC/USD 240min - Cryptocurrency Trade Outllook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Bitcoin price action shows BTC/USD continuing to trade within the confines of an descending pitchfork formation extending off yearly highs with today’s breakdown compromising the 25% parallel to register fresh multi-week lows. Initial support rests just lower at the objective 2021 yearly open at 28999 backed closely the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 rally / yearly opening-range low at 27169-27734- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Initial resistance now back at 30655 and the yearly low-day close at 32005- intraday advances should be capped to this threshold IF another low is on the cards.

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Bottom line: The Bitcoin plunge has broken below downtrend support with the decline now approaching the next key support objectives just lower- watch the closes. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch into key support at 27169-27734 – expect a larger reaction there IF reached. Ultimately, the risk remains for a fresh monthly low here with a breach above the July open needed to put the bulls back in control.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy


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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.