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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Underway- Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Underway- Loonie Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD breakout now testing first Major resistance hurdle
  • Resistance 1.2579-1.2603 - Support ~1.2260s, bullish invalidation 1.2365

The Canadian Dollar plunged more than 1.7% against the US Dollar this week with a breakout in USD/CAD soaring to fresh multi-month highs. While the broader focus remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the days ahead as price extends into the first major technical resistance hurdles. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinarfor an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted that a rebound off uptrend support had shifted the focus higher in USD/CAD while noting that, “losses should be capped by the weekly open IF price is heading higher with a breach / close above the median-line needed to fuel another run at the highs near 1.2485.” Weekly-open support held with a breakout above the median-line / late-March 2020 trendline (magenta) fueling a rally of more than 2.3% off the monthly low.

The advance is now testing the first major resistance hurdle at the upper parallel around ~1.2579-1.2606- the immediate focus is on a reaction off this threshold. Daily support rests back at the median-line near ~1.2460s with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the March swing low / July open at 1.2365/95.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD continuing to trade within the ascending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the yearly lows with the upper parallel seen just above lateral resistance at 1.2579-1.2603. A topside breach / close above this slope is needed to mark resumption with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the April high at 1.2654 and the 2021 yearly open / 100% Fibonacci extension at 1.2713/32 (key)- an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CAD breakout has extended into the fist major hurdle at uptrend resistance- looking for possible inflection up here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for downside exhaustion ahead of 1.2365 IF price is indeed heading higher with a breach / close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next leg in price. Keep in mind we have Canadian employment data this Friday with the US core inflation and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on tap next week- stay nimble. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.38 (57.97% of traders are long) – typically weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are4.16% lower than yesterday and 20.67% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 15.75% lower than yesterday and 14.32% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.