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USD/JPY at Critical Juncture as ST Rally Grapples with MT Bearish Patterns

USD/JPY at Critical Juncture as ST Rally Grapples with MT Bearish Patterns

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
USDJPY_at_Critical_Juncture_as_ST_Rally_Grapples_with_MT_Bearish_Patterns_body_Picture_1.png, USD/JPY at Critical Juncture as ST Rally Grapples with MT Bearish Patterns

Chart prepared by Christopher Vecchio using Marketscope 2.0

Are you new to FX or curious about your trading IQ?

FOREX Analysis: The beginning of June yielded the start of a Bearish Broadening Wedge (off of the February 25 and April 4 lows), but near-term bullish momentum has signaled a false breakout now that the USDJPY rests above the wedge’s support, at ¥96.65/80 today. Although the USDJPY broke the RSI downtrend last week, near-term divergence has formed as the rally has seen RSI take out prior swing highs without the same occurring in price, as the pair has failed to achieve the 50% Fib retracement from the May high to the June low – the same occurred after the first major June low was set on June 7 (price rallied to 99.28, 50% at 99.35; now price has rallied to 98.70, 50% at 98.76 [blue line]). The 98.70 high this week also comes in below 98.80 (38.2% Fib February low to May high [red line]).

FOREX Trading Strategy: With US Treasury yields screaming higher, a widening UST-JGB yield spread should be supportive of further gains in the pair. However, with the rebound from last week’s low to high resembling that of the rebound from June 7 to June 10, a fractal may be in play here hinting at further downside pressure. A break of 98.70/80 necessarily points to 99.25/35 (post-May NFP swing high). Lower, 96.15/20 (23.6% Fib May high to June low [red line]) and 95.75/80 (61.8% Fib February low to May high [blue line]) are support. A near-term bullish bias is warranted as long as price holds 96.65/80; a medium-term bearish bias is warranted as long as price holds 99.25/35.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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