Jamie's Market Thoughts: 05/05/11
Volatility clarifies market structure, making it easier to ‘see’ the oscillations between optimism and pessimism. In these days of fed induced liquidity, optimism refers to ‘risk-on’ and pessimism ‘risk-off’ (also USD down / USD up). That’s all. The 30 yr bond has been my guide of late (a bond rally is viewed as a flight to safety). The next possible inflection point is next week above 126 (see chart).
The intersection of channel resistance and the 100% extension occurs in the middle of next week, suggesting risk aversion until that point. If the bond explodes through 126, then markets will be in full on crises mode. Considering the tendency for risk aversion moves to accelerate into their terminus, there are short Yen crosses speculative opportunities from here (allowing for a correction). Understanding the inherent risk on being short Yen crosses (BoJ intervention), ideas are as follows;
Limit order to short AUDJPY at 8560 and 8600, stop 8685, targets 8200 and 8050
Limit order to short NZDJPY at 6340 and 6400, stop 6450, targets 6100 and 6000
Limit order to short AUDUSD at 10640 and 10690, stop 10775, target 10200
Limit order to short NZDUSD at 7965, stop 8060, target 7550
The EURUSD has fallen in a straight line from 14900 and reached what I think is support at the former peak of 14519. Initial resistance is 14600/20 and I’d be a seller there against 14700, looking for additional weakness towards channel support, which is at 14380 Friday.
Levels to Consider in Other Markets
Silver is off by over 40% this week and downside levels that could produce a bounce are 33.59, 31.32, and 26.35. When considering the bond pattern, some consolidation may lead to a drop into 26.35 by the middle of next week.
Gold is at a trendline support now so expect some consolidaton prior to a test of former resistance at 1446.80. The gold trendline is one reason to suspect that there is some upside over the next day or so in the EURUSD (14600/20).
1319.25 may be important in the June S&P contract. This is former resistance and intersects with trendline support on Friday.
Very short term, I wouldn’t be surprised to see risk find a low in early Asia trading (bottoms in Yen crosses and EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD). However, I’m a seller of risk and buyer of USD on expected pullbacks – expecting risk aversion to extend (on balance) into next week (at least). Any changes in my thoughts will be expressed in real time through the DailyFX Real Time FOREX News link.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to email@example.com.
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