We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD may extend declines while $EURUSD turns higher based on trader positioning signals. What is the outlook for the Canadian Dollar and #Euro incorporating IG Client Sentiment? #CAD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/02/19/USDCAD-Outlook-Bearish-EURUSD-Forecast-Bullish-on-Positioning.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ZiW77qolR2
  • Hey, traders 👋 do you want live AMAS with our analysts, market updates and tools to improve your trading strategy? Join us now on Instagram! 👉 https://t.co/pHGzVMqsC4 https://t.co/LTuJok49Ac
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.98%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/d3YBidnCIl
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/T3eOx2Lw1X
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.63% Germany 30: 0.62% Wall Street: 0.28% US 500: 0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7P5zkqlgMm
  • The #Euro may retrace higher before resuming a selloff that brought the single currency to the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/6tE2Xibkiw https://t.co/vfFbt3Q7NT
  • LIVE NOW: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will analyze the cross-asset impact of geopolitical risks affecting markets in the week ahead. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • The $USD gained versus SGD and IDR despite a “risk-on” tone in markets, boosted by strong declines in the Euro. What is the week ahead for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/MYR? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/3zCSbkEQ2c https://t.co/edBGpLGUPg
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.90% Silver: 0.52% Gold: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AGzdmphrrt
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will analyze the cross-asset impact of geopolitical risks affecting markets in the week ahead. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

2011-09-09 15:07:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist
Share:

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the "distribution" list.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_eur.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

EUR/USD: The latest downside pressures have intensified and the market is now looking to establish below next key support at 1.3835. The level is critical and a weekly close below will likely accelerate declines and open the door for a potential drop that ultimately exposes the 1.2000 handle further down. A closer look at the monthly chart dating back to the record highs from 2008 shows a progressive decline with the market in the process of carving a series of lower tops and lower lows. Therefore, a clear break below 1.3835 will do a good job of reinforcing the potential for the carving of the next major lower top below 1.5000. In the interim, look for any rallies to be well capped below 1.4250, while only back above 1.4500 gives reason for concern.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_yen.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

USD/JPY:This is a market that looks like it trying very hard to establish some form of a base after recently setting fresh record lows just under 76.00. Although the downtrend remains intact and has been fairly intense, longer-term studies welcome the prospects of the formation of a material base and shift in the overall structure. Price action over the past several days has been confirming, with the market very well supported in the 76.00’s and unable to extend the downtrend to fresh record lows. Instead, the break back above 77.00 is looking more and more constructive, with the weekly chart also showing bullish tendencies after quietly putting in three consecutive positive closes. From here, we look for the establishment back above the 50-Day SMA at 77.90 to reaffirm our recovery outlook and accelerate gains towards next key resistance by 80.25 further up. Ultimately, only a daily close back below 76.50 would give reason for concern.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_gbp.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

GBP/USD: Overall price action seems to suggest that this market could once again be looking to roll over in favor of some fresh medium-term declines. Any gains in recent months have proven to be very well capped above 1.6500, and this latest break back below 1.6000 opens the door for a pick-up in bearish momentum. Next key support comes in by 1.5780 and a break below the level will confirm bias and accelerate declines for a retest of 1.5345 further down. Any interday rallies are expected to be well capped below 1.6300, while ultimately, only back above 1.6500 would give reason for concern.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_chf.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

USD/CHF: The latest sharp reversal off of record lows just shy of 0.7000 is encouraging and could finally be starting to signal the formation for a major base with a sequence of medium-term lower tops broken. A recent acceleration of gains beyond critical resistance and a previous lower top at 0.8550 confirms bullish bias and from here, we see room for fresh upside towards the 0.9000-0.9500 area over the coming weeks. Look for any setbacks to be well supported above previous resistance now tuned support at 0.8240 on a daily close basis, while ultimately, only back under 0.7700 would negate bullish outlook and give reason for pause. The break and close back above the 200-Day SMA for the first time in several months provides more ammunition for our highly constructive outlook.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_aud.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

AUD/USD: Although this market remains relatively well supported and near its recently established fresh post-float record highs from several weeks back at 1.1080, we believe we have already begun to see the start of a major reversal in the trend which will ultimately open the door for a more significant decline over the medium-term. In the interim, look for the market to hold below 1.0800 on a weekly close basis, and for the formation of a lower top below 1.1080 ahead of the next downside extension back below 0.9925. A break back below 1.0360 will help to confirm outlook, while only a weekly close beyond 1.0800 negates.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_nzd.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

NZD/USD: Although this market remains relatively well supported and near its recently established fresh post-float record highs from several weeks back at 0.8845, we believe we have already begun to see the start of a major reversal in the trend which will ultimately open the door for a more significant decline over the medium-term. In the interim, look for the market to hold below 0.8500 on a weekly close basis, and for the formation of a lower top below 0.8845 at 0.8570 ahead of the next downside extension back below 0.7965. A break back below 0.8150 will help to confirm outlook, while only back above 0.8570 ultimately negates.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_cad.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

USD/CAD: The market has put in an impressive recovery since posting fresh yearly lows by 0.9400 several weeks back and while the bounce has been significant on a short-term basis, scope still exists for additional gains ahead with medium and longer-term studies still very much on the oversold side. The 200-Day SMA comes in by the 0.9800 figure and the recent break and close back above this longer-term moving average opens the door for a more sizable shift in the overall construct of the market and a sustained move back above parity and towards the 1.0500-1.100 area further up. A closer look at the weekly chart shows the trigger of a major double bottom. In the interim, look for any intraday setbacks to be well supported above 0.9700.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

EUR/JPY: The market remains under pressure for the time being and could be on the verge of a fresh downside extension below 108.00 and back towards some more significant multi-day range support in the 106.00’s. However, any additional declines below 106.00 should be limited, with the greater risk for yet another bounce by the critical range lows in favor of a significant upside reversal. Look for an eventual break back above 112.00 to officially relieve downside pressures.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

GBP/JPY:The market remains under pressure for the time being and could be on the verge of a fresh downside extension below 123.30 and back towards some more significant multi-day range support in the 122.00’s. However, any additional declines below 122.00 should be limited, with the greater risk for yet another bounce by the range lows in favor of a significant upside reversal. Officially, inability to establish below 122.00 followed by a break back above 127.35 would relieve downside pressures and confirm bullish bias.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_eurchf.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

EUR/CHF:The latest sharp reversal off of record lows just shy of parity is encouraging and could finally be starting to signal the formation of a major base. Weekly studies are also confirming with the formation with a very bullish bottom close. A dramatic break back above 1.1975 now officially confirms a fresh higher low by 1.1000, above the 1.0075 record lows and opens a fresh upside extension with a measured move objective towards 1.3000 over the coming weeks. Look for any setbacks to now be well supported above previous resistance now turned support at 1.1500.

Medium-Term_Technical_Outlook_for_Major_Currencies_and_Crosses_body_dxy.png, Medium-Term Technical Outlook for Major Currencies and Crosses

US DOLLAR INDEX: The market remains very well supported on dips and is showing some clear signs of a material base. Key resistance comes in just over 9,750 and we will look for a weekly close above this level to confirm our bullish outlook and accelerate gains towards a measured move objective by 10,000. Ultimately, only a weekly close back under 9,500 would give reason for concern.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@dailyfx.com and you will be added to the "distribution" list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.