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Price & Time: Euro Pairs Turning on Schedule

Price & Time: Euro Pairs Turning on Schedule

2013-02-27 18:54:00
Kristian A. Kerr,
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

GBP/USD:

PT_cycle_turn_n_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Euro Pairs Turning on Schedule

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-Cable touched its lowest level since July of 2010 at the start of the week before finding support at the 10th square root progression from the January high at 1.5070

- Bias remains to the downside, but a break under this level is now needed to setup further weakness towards extensions in the 1.5000 area and beyond

- A minor cyclical turn window on the day of the recent low at 1.5070 is a potential positive for the pair

- Immediate resistance seen at the 50% retracement of the 2009 range in the 1.5250 area

- However, strength over a cluster of various retracements in the 1.5375 area is really required to signal a more important trend reversal underway

Strategy: The recent low was recorded during a cyclical turn window. This is a little concerning. Stay short, but lower stops to just above 1.5250.

USD/CHF:

PT_cycle_turn_n_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Euro Pairs Turning on Schedule

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- USD/CHF broke above the .9325 61.8% retracement of the November to February decline at the start of the week before stalling its advance

- While the exchange rate is above a cluster of retracement support in the .9260 area our focus is higher

- Traction over .9325 on a closing basis is now required to prompt a new leg higher towards the critical 1x1 Gann fan line from last year’s high currently around .9370

-Some caution is warranted, however, as the shorter-term cyclical picture has turned negative on the dollar over the next few days

- Weakness under the Fibonacci cluster at .9260 would signal a a dollar reversal is underway and shift our immediate bias lower

Strategy: The cyclical picture is clearly negative for a few days. We will look to get long in a few days. Hoepfully from better levels. A quick move under .9260 will force a short.

EUR/AUD:

PT_cycle_turn_n_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Euro Pairs Turning on Schedule

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- EUR/AUD broke under the 50% retracement of the year-to-date range at the start of the week and touched its lowest level in a month

- Support has since been found at a key Fibonacci confluence in the 1.2675 area

- Near-term cyclical picture has turned positive for a few days and some further strength looks likely

- Above a convergence of the 1x1 Gann line and 38% retracement of the February decline at 1.2875 needed to trigger next push higher

- Only weakness under 1.2675 undermines the positive cyclical tone and re-focuses attention lower

Strategy: Cover short positions. We like long positions while over 1.2675.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/NZD

PT_cycle_turn_n_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Euro Pairs Turning on Schedule

We wrote on Monday that our shorter-term focused cyclical analysis using various Fibonacci relationships was signaling a turn higher in EUR/NZD. Following a brief probe under the 50% retracement of the advance from the August low in the 1.5660 area, the cross has moved steadily higher. The cyclical profile remains positive for a few more days with early next week the next time for a turn according to the methodology. Some weakness does look possible on Thursday using another cyclical concept.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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