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Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

2012-01-24 14:17:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

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December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-CADCHF (bearish) EURCAD (bullish) EURJPY (bullish)


Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_012412table.jpg, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Morning Comments:

S&P – Yesterday’s dojis in the Dow and S&P (indexes) are consistent with a top. Evidence that favors a downturn from here includes (but is not limited to) the lowest NYSE short interest in 3 years, extreme put/call ratio, and divergence between the S&P and Nasdaq (futures – see below). The writing is on the wall. ES levels to watch are 1297.50, 1280, and 1266.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_nqes.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Is back above 9904, which once again gives scope to a bullish outcome. The choppiness of late has been frustrating but this is the market’s way of clearing the forest so that the stampede can take place. 9930/45 is resistance and 9880/95 is support.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_usdollar.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – “Despite the break above channel resistance, a potentially completed 5 wave rally from the 1/13 low keeps me from turning bullish here. The implications are for a correction back towards at least 12875. 12950/85 is interim support.” 12990 is resistance.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_eurusd.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Like the EURUSD, the structure of the rally from the 1/13 low is constructive (5 waves). The implications are for near term weakness before additional gains. For now, 15450-15500 is estimated support.

AUDUSD – The drop below 10458 triggers a bearish bias towards 10385 (former resistance). The next level of support would be the 20 day average/trendline support at 10320/40. I favor shorting into 10450/80 resistance with a stop at 10550.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_audusd.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD –The next cluster of resistance isn’t until 8240/80 (October high / 161.8% extension of the rally from the November low / 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high) but the rally has stalled after tagging the 2nd standard deviation band yesterday. A drop under 8045 would trigger a bearish bias.

USDJPY – Has broken through the recent range (7650-7750), giving scope to an extension to the November high of 7828. Buy dips at support below 7760 with a stop under 7686.

USDCAD – 10161 serves as the trend defining level. Downside levels of interest include a channel at 9975, the 200 day average at 9936, and the October low at 9892.

USDCHF – An impulse (5 waves) from 9574 may be complete. The implications are for a return to 9380. 9305/30 is interim resistance.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.