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Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

2012-01-24 14:17:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-CADCHF (bearish) EURCAD (bullish) EURJPY (bullish)

RSI Signals Last Week-AUDJPY CADJPY NZDJPY NZDUSD SGDJPY (all bearish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_012412table.jpg, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Morning Comments:

S&P – Yesterday’s dojis in the Dow and S&P (indexes) are consistent with a top. Evidence that favors a downturn from here includes (but is not limited to) the lowest NYSE short interest in 3 years, extreme put/call ratio, and divergence between the S&P and Nasdaq (futures – see below). The writing is on the wall. ES levels to watch are 1297.50, 1280, and 1266.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_nqes.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Is back above 9904, which once again gives scope to a bullish outcome. The choppiness of late has been frustrating but this is the market’s way of clearing the forest so that the stampede can take place. 9930/45 is resistance and 9880/95 is support.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_usdollar.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – “Despite the break above channel resistance, a potentially completed 5 wave rally from the 1/13 low keeps me from turning bullish here. The implications are for a correction back towards at least 12875. 12950/85 is interim support.” 12990 is resistance.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_eurusd.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Like the EURUSD, the structure of the rally from the 1/13 low is constructive (5 waves). The implications are for near term weakness before additional gains. For now, 15450-15500 is estimated support.

AUDUSD – The drop below 10458 triggers a bearish bias towards 10385 (former resistance). The next level of support would be the 20 day average/trendline support at 10320/40. I favor shorting into 10450/80 resistance with a stop at 10550.

Risk_and_Reversal_Characteristics__body_audusd.png, Risk (Stocks and Commodity FX) and Reversal Characteristics

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD –The next cluster of resistance isn’t until 8240/80 (October high / 161.8% extension of the rally from the November low / 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high) but the rally has stalled after tagging the 2nd standard deviation band yesterday. A drop under 8045 would trigger a bearish bias.

USDJPY – Has broken through the recent range (7650-7750), giving scope to an extension to the November high of 7828. Buy dips at support below 7760 with a stop under 7686.

USDCAD – 10161 serves as the trend defining level. Downside levels of interest include a channel at 9975, the 200 day average at 9936, and the October low at 9892.

USDCHF – An impulse (5 waves) from 9574 may be complete. The implications are for a return to 9380. 9305/30 is interim resistance.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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