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Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

2011-05-20 22:00:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Long Term Trends and Pivot Points (monthly data) (updated on first of the month)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

UP

109.77

113.12

116.62

119.90

120.05

123.47

126.82

130.32

GBPJPY

UP

125.32

129.15

132.36

135.87

136.49

139.39

143.22

146.43

CADJPY

UP

78.85

81.71

83.78

86.25

87.05

88.72

91.58

93.65

AUDJPY

UP

82.28

84.04

86.49

87.91

88.60

90.70

92.47

94.91

EURGBP

UP

0.8510

0.8612

0.8733

0.8825

0.8845

0.8956

0.9058

0.9179

EURCAD

UP

1.3067

1.3328

1.3650

1.3881

1.3941

1.4232

1.4493

1.4815

EURAUD

DN

1.2968

1.3227

1.3359

1.3554

1.3681

1.3749

1.4008

1.4139

EURNZD

UP

1.8310

1.8327

0.0018

1.7246

1.7612

1.7943

1.8292

1.8327

Medium Term Trends and Pivot Points (weekly data) (updated every Friday)

TREND

S3

S2

S1

PL

PH

R1

R2

R3

EURJPY

DN

109.93

111.67

113.76

115.32

115.67

117.58

119.32

121.41

GBPJPY

DN

128.15

129.27

130.95

131.77

132.34

133.74

134.85

136.54

CADJPY

DN

80.46

81.56

82.79

83.83

83.95

85.12

86.22

87.45

AUDJPY

UP

82.97

83.95

85.58

86.23

86.89

88.20

89.18

90.81

EURGBP

DN

0.8491

0.8584

0.8658

0.8742

0.8761

0.8826

0.8919

0.8993

EURCAD

DN

1.3402

1.3518

1.3653

1.3758

1.3778

1.3903

1.4019

1.4154

EURAUD

DN

1.3044

1.3161

1.3222

1.3311

1.3368

1.3400

1.3518

1.3579

EURNZD

DN

1.7217

1.7499

1.7644

1.7858

1.7995

1.8072

1.8354

1.8499

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

05-20-11crosses_body_eurgbp.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Focus remains on the 9158 objective, which intersects short term channel resistance on June 6th and longer term channel resistance on June 17th. Price must remain above 8672 in order for the proposed bullish scenario to remain valid. Any weakness below 8672 would shift focus to the February high at 8592 and then the March low at 8460.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

DailyCandles

05-20-11crosses_body_eurcad.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

13600/50 has been strong support since the beginning of April and as long as price is above there I am looking slightly higher towards 14000. This level is defined by former resistance, former support, and the 50% retracement of the decline from 14339. A rally to there would also trace out the right shoulder of a potential head and shoulders top and offer an opportunity to get short.

Euro / Australian Dollar

60 MinuteBars

05-20-11crosses_body_euraud.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Most of last week’s rally has been retraced today (May 20th) and the weak corrective structure of the rally from 13227 suggests that we respect weakness. A drop below 13227 would shift focus to the December 2010 and January 2011 lows at 12925. Short term resistance comes in at 13360.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-20-11crosses_body_eurjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The EURJPY decline from 12332 is clearly in 3 waves (to this point) and the reversal near parallel channel support increases confidence in a bullish bias. Initial support has been reached today at 11560 but additional weakness early next week should find support at 11520 and 11480. Weakness below there would begin to suggest that I am wrong in looking for higher prices.

British Pound / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-20-11crosses_body_gbpjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The decline in the GBPJPY from 14001 unfolded in 5 waves (impulsive) therefore expectations are for a corrective rally before additional weakness below 13027. I still expect at least a test of 13400 and probably a move into the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci zone of 13514-13629 before weakness resumes.

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

DailyBars

05-20-11crosses_body_cadjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The CADJPY continues to respect its 200 day average (as support). The decline from 8951 is clearly in 3 waves and the 2 down legs are equal. Near term structure isn’t clear (could be an x wave triangle or flat) but the corrective characteristics of the decline keep me looking higher towards 8715. Like the other Yen crosses, it’s possible that a large triangle or flat is underway. From a trading perspective, the pattern favors range trading between here and 8700-8800.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen

Daily Bars

05-20-11crosses_body_audjpy.png, Currency Crosses: Technical Outlook

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDJPY has held above its 5/5 low and focus is on 8810 and the top at 9002. The decline from the top retraced a little more than one third of the advance from 7458. We’ve not enough information to know if the decline to 8431 is the complete correction or just a portion of it. The picture should come into focus soon enough. Regardless, the near term trend remains up towards the mentioned levels.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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