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Forex: US Dollar Locked in Narrow Range Before US Jobs Data

Forex: US Dollar Locked in Narrow Range Before US Jobs Data

2013-12-06 03:34:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Locked in Familiar Range Before NFP Data
  • S&P 500 Continues to Sink Having Topped as Expected
  • Gold Technical Positioning Hints at a Rebound Ahead

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate below resistance in the 10641-53 area marked by the November 12 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Near-term support is at 10595, the 23.6% Fib retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 10549. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance initially aims for the 38.2% expansion at 10839.

Forex_US_Dollar_Locked_in_Narrow_Range_Before_US_Jobs_Data_body_Picture_5.png, Forex: US Dollar Locked in Narrow Range Before US Jobs Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke lower as expected, completing a Rising Wedge chart formation. A break below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1788.80 has exposed the 23.6% level at 1773.90. Pushing further below this barrier targets the 38.2% Fib at 1749.60. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1788.80 eyes the November 29 high at 1813.10.

Forex_US_Dollar_Locked_in_Narrow_Range_Before_US_Jobs_Data_body_Picture_6.png, Forex: US Dollar Locked in Narrow Range Before US Jobs Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices put in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern, hinting a move higher is ahead. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Resistance is in the 1237.57-51.54 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the October 15 low. A break above that initially targets the 38.2% level at 1268.98. Near-term support is at 1211.67, the December 4 low.

Forex_US_Dollar_Locked_in_Narrow_Range_Before_US_Jobs_Data_body_Picture_7.png, Forex: US Dollar Locked in Narrow Range Before US Jobs Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices continued higher as expected after breaking resistance at the top of a falling channel set from late August. A Shooting Star candle below resistance at 98.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, now warns of a pullback. Near-term support is at 95.36, with a break below that targeting channel top resistance-turned-support at 92.52. Alternatively, a push through resistance aims for the 38.2% Fib at 101.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Locked_in_Narrow_Range_Before_US_Jobs_Data_body_Picture_8.png, Forex: US Dollar Locked in Narrow Range Before US Jobs Data

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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