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US Dollar Eyes June Low, SPX 500 Hints at Top Taking Shape

US Dollar Eyes June Low, SPX 500 Hints at Top Taking Shape

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Poised to Test June Low After Trend Line Break
  • S&P 500 Chart Positioning Reveals Bearish Reversal Clues
  • Gold Recoils from Resistance, Inches to Pre-FOMC Bottom

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Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices broke support at a rising trend line set from late March, exposing the June bottom at 10469. A push beneath that targets 10391. The trend line – now at 10592 – has been recast as resistance, with a turn back above that targeting 10646.

Forex_US_Dollar_Eyes_June_Low_SPX_500_Hints_at_Top_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Eyes June Low, SPX 500 Hints at Top Taking Shape

Weekly Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance at 1713.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above this barrier targets a long-term channel top set from mid-2011, now at 1748.40. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing bullish momentum and hints a reversal downward may be brewing however. Near-term trend line support is now at 1647.20.

Forex_US_Dollar_Eyes_June_Low_SPX_500_Hints_at_Top_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Eyes June Low, SPX 500 Hints at Top Taking Shape

Weekly Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices recoiled from support-turned-resistance at the underside of a rising channel set from the late-June swing bottom. A break through the 1341.60-47.52 area, marked by a horizontal pivot and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, has exposed the 38.2% level at 1320.86. Pushing further beneath that eyes the 50% Fib at 1304.10. Alternatively, a move back above 1347.52 targets the channel top (now at 1383.00) anew.

Forex_US_Dollar_Eyes_June_Low_SPX_500_Hints_at_Top_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Eyes June Low, SPX 500 Hints at Top Taking Shape

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing rising trend line support set from mid-April, now at 104.14. A break below that initially exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 102.05. Near-term resistance is at 105.93, the 23.6% level.

Forex_US_Dollar_Eyes_June_Low_SPX_500_Hints_at_Top_Taking_Shape_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Eyes June Low, SPX 500 Hints at Top Taking Shape

Weekly Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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