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US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Probes Beneath May Top

US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Probes Beneath May Top

2013-08-12 09:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has found interim support after six consecutive days of selling while the S&P 500 has slipped back below the May swing top.

Don’t have access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket via Mirror Trader as an alternative. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices found support at 10656, the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion, after taking out a rising trend line set from mid-June. Near-term resistance is at 10702, the 61.8% Fib, followed by the 50% expansion at 10739. Alternatively, a reversal below support exposes the 100% level at 10581.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Support_as_SP_500_Probes_Beneath_May_Top_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Probes Beneath May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back as expected after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick. Sellers are now testing below support is at 1687.40, the May 22 high, with a break downward targeting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1674.10. Near-term support-turned-resistance is at the recently broken bottom of a rising channel set from mid-July, now at 1695.00. A move above that exposes the August 8 high at 1709.60.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Support_as_SP_500_Probes_Beneath_May_Top_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Probes Beneath May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing above resistance at a falling trend line set from early May, with buyers aiming at the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1336.76. A break above that targets the 50% level at 1356.52. Near-term resistance is at 1312.32, the 23.6% level, with a reversal back beneath that eying the August 7 low at 1272.81.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Support_as_SP_500_Probes_Beneath_May_Top_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Probes Beneath May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are edging lower within the bounds of what may be a Flag chart pattern, a setup indicative of counter-trend consolidation preceding resumption of the larger bullish trend. Near-term resistance is at 106.04, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break higher targeting the Flag top (107.14) and the 38.2% level at 108.40. Near-term support is at 102.21, the August 8 low, followed by the Flag bottom at 101.84.

Forex_US_Dollar_Finds_Support_as_SP_500_Probes_Beneath_May_Top_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Finds Support as S&P 500 Probes Beneath May Top

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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