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US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar launched an impressive recovery after the FOMC announcement, erasing half of the downturn that has played out since prices topped in late May.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The greenback found interim support above a rising trend line set from late February and launched a recovery, with the bulls now challenging the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 10673. A further push higher targets the 61.8% level at 10721. The 38.2% Fib at 10625 is near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 10565-576 area marked by the 23.6% retracement and the March 11 high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance at 1655.40, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge key rising trend line support set from November 2012 (now at 1617.70). A further push beneath that targets an upward-sloping barrier established from late February, now at 1605.80. Alternatively, a move above resistance aims for the 50% Fib at 1673.30.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below support at 1366.43, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 50% level at 1348.74. A further push beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1331.05. Alternatively, a move back above 1366.43 targets rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1375.33.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices cleared falling trend line set from late January and the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 97.09, exposing the 61.8% level at 98.47. A further push above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 100.18. The 97.09 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the trend line (now at 96.56) anew.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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