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US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

2013-06-20 03:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar launched an impressive recovery after the FOMC announcement, erasing half of the downturn that has played out since prices topped in late May.

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The greenback found interim support above a rising trend line set from late February and launched a recovery, with the bulls now challenging the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 10673. A further push higher targets the 61.8% level at 10721. The 38.2% Fib at 10625 is near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 10565-576 area marked by the 23.6% retracement and the March 11 high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from resistance at 1655.40, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge key rising trend line support set from November 2012 (now at 1617.70). A further push beneath that targets an upward-sloping barrier established from late February, now at 1605.80. Alternatively, a move above resistance aims for the 50% Fib at 1673.30.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below support at 1366.43, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 50% level at 1348.74. A further push beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1331.05. Alternatively, a move back above 1366.43 targets rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 1375.33.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices cleared falling trend line set from late January and the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 97.09, exposing the 61.8% level at 98.47. A further push above that eyes the 76.4% Fib at 100.18. The 97.09 mark has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the trend line (now at 96.56) anew.

Forex_US_Dollar_Erases_Half_of_Latest_Down_Trend_After_FOMC_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Erases Half of Latest Down Trend After FOMC

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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