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S&P 500 Testing Key Resistance, Breakout to Weigh on US Dollar

S&P 500 Testing Key Resistance, Breakout to Weigh on US Dollar

2011-10-10 04:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAYThe S&P 500 is testing key technical resistance, with a break higher threatening to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar. Crude oil appears indecisive below $84.00.

S&P 500 – Prices are probing above resistance at 1164.56, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, to challenge the top of a falling channel set from late August. This barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fib at 1185.98, with a break higher clearing the way for an advance to the 1227.40-1257.30 region. For now, support remains at 1147.25, the 50% retracement level.

SP_500_Testing_Key_Resistance_Breakout_to_Weigh_on_US_Dollar_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Testing Key Resistance, Breakout to Weigh on US Dollar

CRUDE OIL Prices put in a Spinning Top candlestick below support-turned-resistance at $83.65, hinting at ebbing bullish conviction after a three-day rally and hinting that a reversal may materialize. Initial support lines up at $80.18. Alternatively, upward continuation through immediate resistance targets a multi-month channel top at $85.84.

SP_500_Testing_Key_Resistance_Breakout_to_Weigh_on_US_Dollar_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Testing Key Resistance, Breakout to Weigh on US Dollar

GOLD Prices remain locked in a choppy range between the 14.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements at 1589.14 and 1680.78 respectively. A break below immediate support exposes the September 26 low at 1532.45. Alternatively, a push higher through the range top exposes the 50% Fib at 1726.60.

SP_500_Testing_Key_Resistance_Breakout_to_Weigh_on_US_Dollar_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Testing Key Resistance, Breakout to Weigh on US Dollar

US DOLLAR Prices broke through support at the bottom of a rising channel set from late August to stall above support at 9960, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with a break on a daily close basis exposing the 38.2% Fib at 9852. Near-term resistance stands at the channel bottom, now squarely at the 10,000 figure.

SP_500_Testing_Key_Resistance_Breakout_to_Weigh_on_US_Dollar_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Testing Key Resistance, Breakout to Weigh on US Dollar

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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