News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0unrdT https://t.co/mIsVJ4zTbB
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/hymrumanUY
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfs2Iz https://t.co/6dAqxsVfxJ
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Xu3ZT7EtrW https://t.co/5VHKn52MaA
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHq4Np https://t.co/mf9rsmIvaW
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/mYWO0Eta0P
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ZvEMQuFjSs https://t.co/rMmq9cehnY
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tm4k3IVzHr
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/FFMy5O9YoY
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/jZHcyAZ5SU
Fisher and Evans Comment on the Taper, Will the Market Wait?

Fisher and Evans Comment on the Taper, Will the Market Wait?

Gregory Marks, John Kicklighter,

Following comments from known-hawk Dallas Fed President Fisher yesterday, Chicago Fed President Evans offered his own assessment of the path of stimulus and eventual Taper. While it remains a theme that FOMC members are concerned about disinflation and downside risks to economic activity as well as financial health, both Fed Presidents have offered remarks that show they suspect current levels of low inflation to be simply transitory/temporary. Nevertheless, the inflation debate weighs heavily on any decision on the Taper time frame for Evans according to his commentary.

Evans Highlights (Voting Member):

  • Low inflation could delay the end of QE (Neutral/Dovish)
  • Would not oppose a lower unemployment threshold (Neutral/Dovish)
  • Inflation closer to 2% would be preferred before interest rate rise (Neutral)
  • Sees 2.5% growth in second half of 2013 with more than 3% growth in 2014(Neutral)
  • Fed is likely to taper later this year and end by the middle of 2014 (Neutral/ Hawkish)
  • Would ‘clearly’ not rule out the possibility of a September taper (Hawkish)

It was stated in Mr. Bernanke’s last press conference that any reduction in asset purchases would be debated in the context of incoming data. Although recent non-farm payrolls were less than expected, trade balance data this morning had its best print since the fall of 2010 while job openings in the U.S. have maintained a slow yet steady uptrend. Nevertheless, markets continue to be lost in ‘Fedspeak’ – unable to determine whether there is enough support for a September easing of QE3 or not.

Fisher_and_Evans_Comment_on_the_Taper_Will_the_Market_Wait_body_Picture_2.png, Fisher and Evans Comment on the Taper, Will the Market Wait?

Although the function of these FOMC member speeches has been to essentially calm the waters, markets are showing greater complacency and uncertainty amidst the confusion in a lack of a clear consensus. While the central bank and its members have gone through great pains to reassure that a easing back on the open-ended stimulus program is not a move to ‘tighten’ monetary policy (such as a rate hike), the use of leverage and positioning in excessively risky assets over the years means speculators are just as interested in the Taper as they are the timing of the first rate hike. With the S&P and DJIA hitting and closing at all-time highs over the past couple weeks, today’s pullback shows a market that is capricious and lacking confidence in the mature bull trend.

Keeping track of the future catalysts for Taper speculation, Wednesday’s session brings another round of central banker commentary. The Fed’s Plosser and Pianalto (both lean hawkish on QE but neither is a voter) are due to speak (see more scheduled US event risk at the DailyFX Economic Calendar).

August 7th, 2013:

Fisher_and_Evans_Comment_on_the_Taper_Will_the_Market_Wait_body_Picture_1.png, Fisher and Evans Comment on the Taper, Will the Market Wait?

Looking further out to establish a time table, the central bank’s final three policy meetings this year will be assessed for the timing for economic data to evolve as well as the planned updates. The September meeting was pegged as the most likely meeting to begin the Taper after the June FOMC meeting initiated the ‘QE3 may be reduced staring later in 2013’ because it is one of the quarterly meetings where forecasts will be updated and Chairman Bernanke will hold a press conference.

FOMC 2013 Announcement Dates:

  • September 17-18(Updated Forecasts / Press Conference)
  • October 29-30
  • Decemeber 17-18(Updated Forecasts / Press Conference)

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

Gregory Marks, DailyFX Research Team

New to Forex? Watch this video.

How does a Currency War affect your FX trading?

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES