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Australian Dollar Softens as Bank Minutes Retain Dovish Rhetoric

Australian Dollar Softens as Bank Minutes Retain Dovish Rhetoric

2011-08-16 01:48:00
David Liu, Technical Strategist
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THE TAKEAWAY: Australia sees slower growth ahead, strong dollar capping inflation > Less likely to raise rates > AUD softens

Highlights from the August RBA meeting minutes include:

*Subdued consumer spending, higher Australian dollar “dampening” inflation

Downside risks more pronounced when it met August 2nd

*Holding rates “prudent” while assessing growth

“Grounds for concern” on medium-term inflation outlook

“Acute” global uncertainty for no rate hike on August 2nd

The Australian dollar declined immediately after the report as the new minutes showed that the bank was willing to hold onto their current rate of 4.75%. Additional concerns about a potentially weakening global recovery and continued efforts by the People’s Bank of China to slow down its economy, hurting demand for Australian raw materials. At the time of writing, Credit Suisse swaps showed that markets were pricing in an 81% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next RBA meeting, with at 119 basis point cut over the next 12 months.

Australian_Dollar_Softens_as_Bank_Minutes_Retain_Dovish_Rhetoric_body_Picture_4.png, Australian Dollar Softens as Bank Minutes Retain Dovish Rhetoric

AUDUSD 5 minutes, vertical line indicates time of release. Chart generated with FXCM Strategy Trader.

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