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Euro Eyes June High Following Bullish Break- JPY Ranges Remain Favorable

Euro Eyes June High Following Bullish Break- JPY Ranges Remain Favorable

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR to Resume Bearish Trend; Lower-Low on Tap?

- EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Former Support (1.3670-80) Ahead of ECB July Meeting

- USD/JPY Threatens Monthly Low (101.59) Ahead of Japan CPI Report

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10436.21

10456

10426.24

-0.13

87.96%

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to carve string of lower-highs in June following the dismal 1Q GDP report.
  • Faces an increased risk for a lower-low as descending channel & bearish RSI momentum remain in play.
  • Ahead of the May (10,370) & October (10,354) lows, 10,406 (161.8%% Fibonacci expansion) remains in view.

EUR/USD:

  • Watching former support (1.3670-80) following bullish breakout.
  • Looking for close above 1.3620-30 (23.6% retracement) to favor topside objectives.
  • May need more details surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) easing cycle at the July 3 meeting to look beyond the June range.

USD/JPY

  • Despite the decline, USD/JPY still holds above 200-Day SMA (101.60) & June low (101.59).
  • Need bearish RSI break to favor a further decline; next downside hurdle comes in around 101.40-50 (78.6% retracement).
  • Headline reading for Japanese inflation to expand 3.7% versus 3.4% in April; may encourage Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further scale back its dovish tone for monetary policy.

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Euro Eyes June High Following Bullish Break- JPY Ranges Remain Favorable

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Read More:

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USDOLLAR Daily

Euro Eyes June High Following Bullish Break- JPY Ranges Remain Favorable

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q T)

12:30

-1.8%

2.9%

Personal Consumption (1Q T)

12:30

2.4%

1.0%

Gross Domestic Product Price Index (1Q T)

12:30

1.3%

1.3%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q T)

12:30

1.2%

1.2%

Durable Goods Orders (MAY)

12:30

0.0%

-1.0%

Durables ex Transportation (MAY)

12:30

0.3%

-0.1%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (MAY)

12:30

0.5%

0.7%

Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (MAY)

12:30

1.0%

0.4%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUN P)

13:45

--

61.1

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN P)

13:45

58.0

61.2

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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