News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Balance of Trade (JUN) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: ZAR52B Previous: ZAR 54.6B
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Unemployment Rate (MAY) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 14.5% Previous: 14.7%
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain informed analyses from industry leaders with our free guides, available today. Download the Q3 guide:
  • Russia's Novak - The need for oil is increasing with oil consumption on the rise - OPEC+ output hike of 400kbpd/month is adequate
  • 🇲🇽 GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2) Actual: 19.7% Expected: 19.8% Previous: -3.6%
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.48%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 71.54%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 19.8% Previous: -3.6%
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.16% Gold: -0.02% Oil - US Crude: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via
USD Index To Breakout As EU Disappoints, Sticky Inflation Limits QE3

USD Index To Breakout As EU Disappoints, Sticky Inflation Limits QE3

David Song, Strategist





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD_Index_To_Breakout_As_EU_Disappoints_Sticky_Inflation_Limits_QE3_body_ScreenShot131.png, USD Index To Breakout As EU Disappoints, Sticky Inflation Limits QE3

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.13 percent higher on the day, the greenback may continue to trade within a narrow range over the next 24-hours of trading as the EU Summit takes center stage. Indeed, headlines coming out of the meeting is likely to spark increased volatility across the major currencies, and we may see the flight to safety gather pace should the group of European policy makers struggle to meet on common ground. In light of the recent developments, it seems as though the group is softening its push for further fiscal integration, and the new agenda to draw up a growth pact may do little to restore investor confidence as the group maintains a reactionary approach in addressing the threat for contagion. Nevertheless, we’re still watching the inverse head-and-shoulders reversal take shape, but we will be keeping a close eye on the 30-minute relative strength as there appears to be a bearish divergence in the oscillator. In turn, we need a move above the 10,200 figure for the bullish formation to pan out, but we will scale back our bet for more dollar advances should the index fail to hold above the October high (10,134).

USD_Index_To_Breakout_As_EU_Disappoints_Sticky_Inflation_Limits_QE3_body_ScreenShot132.png, USD Index To Breakout As EU Disappoints, Sticky Inflation Limits QE3

The longer-term picture for the dollar remains bullish as it maintains the upward trend from earlier this year, and the reserve currency may continue to push higher in the second-half of the year as the data coming out of the world’s largest economy limit’s the Fed’s scope to push through another asset purchase program. As the stickiness in underlying price growth heightens the threat for inflation, we should see the FOMC continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy, and the central bank may have little choice but to carry its current policy into 2013 as growth and inflation picks up. As the recovery gradually gathers pace, we should see the Fed move away from its easing cycle next year, and the shift in the policy outlook should increase the appeal of the USD as bets for QE3 dissipate. As the reserve currency carves out a higher low in June, we anticipate to see fresh yearly highs in the index, and we will be closely watching the relative strength index as it appears to be in an upward trend.

USD_Index_To_Breakout_As_EU_Disappoints_Sticky_Inflation_Limits_QE3_body_ScreenShot133.png, USD Index To Breakout As EU Disappoints, Sticky Inflation Limits QE3

Once again, three of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.45 percent decline in the Australian dollar, while the Japanese Yen advanced 0.51 as currency traders scaled back their appetite for risk. Indeed, the USDJPY is threatening the ascending channel from earlier this month as the exchange rate struggles to hold above the 20-Day SMA (79.29), and we may see the pair come under increased pressure should the upward trend in the RSI give out. Nevertheless, our medium-term bias remains tilted to the upside as the Bank of Japan maintains its pledge to ease monetary policy further, and we may continue to see a series of higher highs paired with higher lows amid the disparity in the policy outlook.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.