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Cross Asset Forecasts for Q3 2022

Cross Asset Forecasts for Q3 2022

Brendan Fagan,

Fundamental Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Q3 2022 Forecast: Fed’s Lost Credibility is Noted by RBA

The Australian Dollar made a 2-year low against the US Dollar in May as global central banks jockeyed for position in the fight on inflation.

Bitcoin Q3 2022 Forecast: Where’s the Bottom?

If Q1 was difficult for crypto bulls, Q2 was an absolute disaster… As we head into the third quarter, the macro-outlook is still likely to be challenging for crypto, but we could be nearing a cycle low.

British Pound Q3 2022 Forecast: The Bank of England: It’s Time to Decide

The second quarter of the year has been a tricky three months for the Bank of England (BoE) as inflation continued to soar - and is expected to rise further - while growth slowed to a crawl, sparking fears that the UK may enter a recession.

Equities Q3 2022 Forecast: Bearish Momentum Remains Amid Rising Recession Risks

Our Q2 forecast for equities had centered around a mentality shift from a “buy the dip bias” to a “sell the rip” with the Federal Reserve and central banks alike in a tightening overdrive to fight inflation pressures.

Euro Q3 2022 Forecast: Euro May Fall Anew as Debt Crisis Fears Dilute ECB Rate Hikes

The Euro has steadily depreciated against a basket of major currencies since Dec. 2020. Tellingly, that turning point coincided with topping gold prices and the start of a creep higher in Fed rate hike expectations.

Gold Q3 2022 Forecast: Fundamental Outlook Weakens

As anticipated in the Q2’22 gold forecast, the main catalyst that drove gold prices higher in Q1’22 – the Russian invasion of Ukraine – proved to be a short-lived catalyst.

Japanese Yen Q3 2022 Forecast: Will a Weak Yen Push the BoJ into Action?

The Japanese Yen was hammered by markets in the second quarter. USD/JPY shot by the 2002 peak, touching its highest since 1998. A key driver of the Yen’s weakness has been the Bank of Japan’s policy divergence from its major peers.

Oil Q3 2022 Forecast: Rising Output to Coincide with Easing Demand

The price of oil has fallen roughly 20% from the 2022 high ($130.50) as US President Joe Biden takes further steps to combat high energy prices.

US Dollar Q3 2022 Forecast: Dollar’s Run Relies on Rates, Recession and Risk

The Dollar performed exceptionally well through the first half of 2022 – and more broadly over the preceding year.

Technical Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Change in Fortunes for AUD

A lot has changed from my Q2 Australian Dollar forecast from being one of the few currencies in the green against the U.S. dollar to almost 4.6% down year-to-date.

Bitcoin Q3 2022 Technical Forecast

Heading into last quarter I was giving BTC/USD the benefit of the doubt that it may rally, but for that to be the case it would have needed to garner around of fresh interest quickly.

British Pound Q3 Technical Forecast: Can Sterling Recover or Will Bears Remain in Control?

GBP/USD has remained humbled since the latter part of last year as the pair continues to be influenced by geopolitics.

Equities Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Rebound then Lower Again

At one point last quarter the U.S. stock market was off by about 25%, with all losses coming in the first half of the year.

Euro Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Carves Out Bullish Reversal Pattern, But Caution is Warranted

The euro continued to lose ground against the U.S. dollar in the second quarter, extending the relentless decline that began just over a year ago.

Gold Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Gold Correction Searches for a Low

Gold prices head into the start of Q3 trading just above the objective yearly open with XAU/USD still holding multi-year uptrend support.

Japanese Yen Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Targets 1998 High

The Japanese Yen fell more than 10% versus the US Dollar in the second quarter as USD/JPY bulls pressed higher with nearly unrelenting vigor.

Oil Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: WTI Bull Trend Shows Signs of Slowing Down, Not Breaking

Technical forecasts for oil are always challenging as the market is so heavily driven by fundamental factors like demand and supply, geopolitical uncertainty, war, the value of the dollar, the state of the global economy and others.

US Dollar Q3 2022 Technical Forecast: Does the Bull Stampede Have More Room to Roam?

The bullish USD trend turned a year-old last month. And it can be difficult to put into scope everything that’s happened since then but, just last May, DXY was grinding at the same 90 level that had held the lows at the start of the year.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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