Heading into last quarter I was giving BTC/USD the benefit of the doubt that it may rally, but for that to be the case it would have needed to garner a round of fresh interest quickly. That of course failed to materialize as we began Q2, and on that BTC rolled over quickly with risk trends.
Buying this Quarter
In June, BTC/USD not only broke big support at 28600, but it also fell below the December 2017 high at 19666. However, we saw a weekly close above the 2017 level after bottoming out at 17592. The weekly reversal back above a critical level of support coupled with market sentiment appearing to be on the verge of a broader rebound, BTC should see some buying this quarter.
However, strength is viewed as likely to be transient, as the longer-term forces appear headed to send Bitcoin much lower. But before that develops (nothing rarely happens in a straight line) a rally back to old support around 28600 up to around 30k is seen as having a decent probability. Prior to that big test is a weekly low at 25400 to keep an eye on.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Chart
Chart created with TradingView
What happens around former support will be key to watch should price rise to that point. In-line with the broader trend lower it could be the capper on a bounce before another major leg lower develops. The next big level of support to watch below 17592 comes in at 13880, the 2019 high.
The general trading bias is bullish as long as 17592 holds. Trading from the long side may be the way to go until we see former support near 30k tested as potentially a new source of resistance.
