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Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euro, NFPs, China PMI

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euro, NFPs, China PMI

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist


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Global market sentiment was a mixed bag this past week. Strong gains were seen on Wall Street as the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones gained about 2.3% and 0.33% respectively. Equities in Europe were mixed, with the FTSE 100 rallying 1% as the DAX 40 declined 0.74%. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 roared 5.6% higher as the Hang Seng was relatively flat.

In somewhat of a surprise, sentiment improved despite a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a 50-basis point hike at meetings if needed. He also downplayed concerns about a recession in 2023. The US Dollar was mixed, outperforming the Euro and British Pound. The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed.

It was a dismal week for the anti-risk Japanese Yen. Rising Treasury yields continue to erode JPY’s attractiveness in a world where the Bank of Japan remains dovish compared to its major peers. Commodity prices roared higher. WTI crude oil gained 7.7% as gold climbed 1.7%. Other metals, like aluminum and iron ore, gained 7% and 4.7% respectively.

Economic event risk returns in the week ahead, with the US docket busy. Top-tier event risks from that part of the world includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and non-farm payrolls. Traders will be closely eyeing how price pressures continue to work their way into the economy, opening the door to a more hawkish central bank.

Outside of the world’s largest economy, China will release March manufacturing PMI. Concerns have been rising of a slowing China, which could have key consequences for global growth. Euro-area inflation data will also cross the wires, perhaps leaving the European Central Bank in a tight spot, having to choose between Ukraine economic consequences or rising price pressures. What else is in store for markets in the week ahead?

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Fundamental Forecasts:

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: AUD/USD Eyes Economic Data as RBA Hike Bets Increase

AUD/USD is eying economic data prints this week after the currency rallied amid higher commodity prices and a rebound in market sentiment. Will data impress enough to boost already rising RBA rate hike bets?

Euro Fundamental Forecast: EUR/USD Clinging on to 1.1000, Inflation Data Nears

The latest look at German and Euro Zone inflation data next week may be a make or break for the single currency as it struggles to hold its own against the US dollar.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP/JPY Spiral to Continue Into Month-End

BoE rate expectations remain aggressive, GBP/JPY upside to persist into month-end.

Gold Price Eyes Yearly High with US PCE Price Index on Tap

Data prints coming out of the US may fuel the recent advance in the price of gold as the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation is expected to increase for the sixth consecutive month.

Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, S&P 500 Forecast: 2-Week Win Streak at Risk as PCE, NFPs Near

The Nasdaq 100 saw its best 2-week rise since the early 2000s dot com bust, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones followed. The road ahead remains tough with US PCE and non-farm payrolls data in focus.

Technical Forecasts:

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Breakdown Has Yearly Low in Focus

USD/CAD is on the move after breaking down below support, the next big level to watch is the yearly low.

US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Price Action Signals Further Near-Term Strength

The DXY index appears to be developing a double bottom formation, which is sometimes considered a bullish continuation pattern. Confirmation could set the stage for the next leg higher.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: Spontaneous Breakout may be Short-Lived

Gold’s rather unusual breakout at the end of the week came as a surprise after invalidating the bearish pennant, however, gold is up against a stern zone of resistance

Bitcoin, Ethereum Weekly Forecast: BTC/USD, ETH/USD Key Levels

Bitcoin and Ethereum have continued to rise alongside stocks, pushing them to key technical levels. Will cryptocurrency continue to rise?

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Price Forecasts: Are Bears Back to Hibernation?

It was a strong week for stocks even with a stacking set of risks on the horizon. Are bears done here or are we setting up for something larger?

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.