News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD is currently setting fresh intraday highs above the 1.2080 level, edging above the highs set earlier in the week to hit its highest level since early March. $EUR $USD https://t.co/wcARbp81Et
  • EUR/USD appears to be stuck in a narrow range as the European Central Bank (ECB) retains the current course for monetary policy. Get your $EURUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/UdgBEQ3MCi https://t.co/uwkNwc1Ikm
  • US Indices are stronger today, recovering from yesterday's selloff driven by capital gains tax headlines. DOW +0.68% SPX +1.17% NDX +1.53% RUT +1.49% $DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.02%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 68.36%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/8OCSgtJeBx
  • there's a bullish channel in here the spans back to last year's q4 $EURJPY support side was tested this morning but bulls making a strong push back-above the 130 handle https://t.co/gHQtawE3BH https://t.co/3XU9kb72f5
  • $EURJPY has mostly been consolidating between the 129.50 and 130.50 levels in April, trading around its highest point since the fall of 2018. The pair hit a fresh multi year high just shy of the 131.00 level earlier this week. $EUR $JPY https://t.co/M9gO4rcOZh
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.68% Gold: -0.42% Silver: -0.66% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cHoZ7KZRDX
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.46% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.21% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ngF6ZwsVQk
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.94% Wall Street: 0.47% FTSE 100: 0.00% Germany 30: -0.01% France 40: -0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VTvPzRlGSK
  • What is going on in crypto recently? It's like everyone got an email from the IRS at the same time that said they are aware of their crypto profits and they are taxable...
Euro Eyes Fresh Lows on ECB Policy- Pound to Face 1Q GDP

Euro Eyes Fresh Lows on ECB Policy- Pound to Face 1Q GDP

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: German IFO Survey Disappoints, ECB Warns of Lower Lending
  • British Pound: BoE Extends FLS, 1Q GDP Report in Focus
  • U.S. Dollar: Demands for Durable Goods Contract More-Than-Expected

Euro: German IFO Survey Disappoints, ECB Warns of Lower Lending

The Euro slipped to an overnight low of 1.2953 as the German IFO Business Confidence survey slipped to 104.4 in April amid forecast for a 106.2 print, while the European Central Bank (ECB) struck a cautious outlook for the region amid the persistent slack in the real economy.

Although the ECB saw credit standards tightening less during the first three-months of the year, the central bank anticipates private sector lending to deteriorate further in the second-quarter, and it seems as though the Governing Council is coming under increased pressure to ease monetary policy further as the euro-area remains mired in a recession.

In turn, a growing number of commercial banks see the ECB pushing the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low at the May 2 meeting, but the central bank may have little choice but to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2013 as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on monetary support.

As the EURUSD carves a lower top around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3120, we’re seeing a head-and-shoulders formation take shape, and the pair may ultimately work its way back towards the 23.6% retracement (1.2640-50) as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area continues to deteriorate.

British Pound: BoE Extends FLS, 1Q GDP Report in Focus

The British Pound climbed to 1.5286 as the Bank of England (BoE) announced plans to extend the Funding for Lending Scheme for another year, and the sterling may continue to track sideways ahead of the next policy meeting on May 9 as the central bank sticks to the sidelines.

Moreover, the BoE said the FLS will also include some non-bank lenders to help encourage a stronger recovery, and it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee will keep its asset purchase program capped at GBP 375B as the central bank sees a slow but sustainable recovery in the U.K.

As the region is expected to face above-target inflation over the policy horizon, we should see the majority of the BoE support a neutral policy stance throughout the remainder of the year, and ease bets for more quantitative easing should increase the appeal of the British Pound as the central bank appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle.

As the GBPUSD maintains the upward trending channel carried over from March, we should see the pair work its way back towards the 1.5400 figure, but we may see the sterling mark a fresh monthly high over the next 24-hours of trading should the 1Q GDP report for the U.K. dampen fears of a triple-dip recession.

U.S. Dollar: Demands for Durable Goods Contract More-Than-Expected

The greenback is struggling to hold its ground, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)falling back from a fresh yearly high of 10,586, and the reserve currency may continue to consolidate ahead of the advance 1Q GDP report as the economic docket highlights a weakening outlook for growth.

Indeed, orders for U.S. Durable Goods slipped 5.7% in March amid expectations for a 3.0% decline, while Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircrafts – a proxy for future business investments – advanced 0.2% versus forecasts for a 0.3% rise. As demands for large-ticket items falter, the data may highlight a further slowdown in private sector consumption, and we may see the FOMC retain its highlight accommodative policy stance throughout the first-half of 2013 in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

EUR

13:00

9:00

ECB's Vitor Constancio Presents 2013 Report to EU Parliament

USD

14:30

10:30

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 19)

-1233K

USD

14:30

10:30

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 19)

2364K

USD

14:30

10:30

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 19)

-633K

CAD

20:15

16:15

BoC Gov Mark Carney Speaks at Senate Standing Committee

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Trading the volatile hours of the US open? Use this app to help find breakouts during these market conditions.

RelatedArticles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES