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FOREX: US Dollar Poised to Extend Gains on Continued Risk Aversion

FOREX: US Dollar Poised to Extend Gains on Continued Risk Aversion

2011-05-12 07:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Overnight Headlines

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.4100

1.4351

GBPUSD

1.6270

1.6466

The Euro and the British Pound were little changed in overnight trade. The single currency tracked sideways in a narrow band around 1.42 to the US Dollar while the Sterling oscillated in a choppy band above 1.63 to the greenback. We are looking for attractive EURUSD and GBPUSD selling opportunities in the days ahead and have entered long USDJPY.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Business NZ Perf of Manuf Index (APR)

51.5

-

50.2 (R+)

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (APR)

0.1%

-

0.3%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (APR)

2.7%

2.7%

2.6% (R-)

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (APR)

-1.0%

-

-1.8%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (APR)

-0.9%

-

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (Yen) (MAR)

1679.1B

1750.0B

1641.0B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (MAR)

752.7B

1016.2B

1218.8B (R+)

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (MAR)

240.3B

305.0B

723.3B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance YOY% (MAR)

-34.3%

-32.0%

3.0%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (APR)

-22.1K

17.K

43.3K (R+)

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (APR)

4.9%

4.9%

4.9%

1:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (APR)

-49.1K

-

38.7K (R+)

1:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (APR)

26.9K

-

4.6K (R-)

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (APR)

65.6%

65.8%

65.8%

2:12

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (APR)

8.92%

-

9.19%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (APR)

-6.8%

-

-10.0%

The Australian Dollar broadly underperformed overnight, down as much as a full percentage point on average against its major counterparts, after April’slabor market report showed an unexpecteddrop in employment. Traders interpreted the release as negative for the prospect of future RBA interest rate hikes, with a Credit Suisse gauge tracking tightening expectations over the next 12 months dropping 8 basis points to the lowest in a week.

The economy lost 22.1K jobs, marking the largest drop in nearly two years. Worse still, the drop was driven by a 49.1K drop in full-time employment, the biggest monthly decline since the 52.2K drawdown recorded in February 2009 just in the aftermath of the global credit crunch and subsequent recession of 2008. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent.

Curiously, the ranks of the unemployment actually shrank in April, down to 583K from 593K in the previous month. The apparent inconsistency appears to be accounted for by a drop in the labor force participation rate, which ticked lower to 65.6 percent to mark the lowest reading in seven months. Workers not actively looking for a job are not counted as being part of the labor force and so are not considered “unemployed”.

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

-

GBP

NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (APR)

-

0.7%

Low

5:30

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.9%

Low

5:30

EUR

French CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR)

2.3%

2.2%

Low

5:30

EUR

French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.8%

Low

5:30

EUR

French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

2.1%

2.0%

Low

5:30

EUR

French CPI Ex Tobacco Index (APR)

122.36

121.90

Low

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (APR)

-

27.7

Low

6:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)

-

26.6

Low

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)

-

49.6%

Low

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes May Monthly Report

-

-

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

0.8%

-1.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

1.1%

2.4%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR)

2.8%

4.9%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

6.3%

7.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.5%

Low

The economic calendar offers little by way of market-moving event risk despite a long list of scheduled releases, with the UK Industrial Production reading amounting to the only item of particular significance. Output is expected to rise 0.8 percent in March, marking the strongest performance in a year. The outcome may prove supportive for the British Pound, reinforcing the hawkish cues found in yesterday’s Bank of England inflation report and helping to stoke interest rate hike expectations.

On the sentiment front, stock index futures tracking the S&P 500 a go-to benchmark for overall risk appetite – are down 0.3 percent in early European trade, hinting the bout of risk aversion that that began with a rout on Wall Street and carried over into Asia is set to continue, boosting the safety-linked US Dollar against its major counterparts.

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To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

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