News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Capital Spending YoY (Q4) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: -10.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (JAN) Actual: 2.9% Expected: 3% Previous: 2.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • The US Dollar is trying to break higher versus ASEAN currencies. The Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Thai Baht and Indonesian Rupiah are under pressure. Will follow-through last? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JOWG9q01q0 https://t.co/onzZoGNQf6
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (JAN) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 3% Previous: 2.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Retail CFD traders (via IG) have flipped net long on the $SPX for the first time since the Pandemic low almost a year ago: https://t.co/yWRLZk5mym
  • ...also for those without kids or are not inherently young at heart, March 2nd is Dr. Seuss's birthday.
  • The price of gold struggles to retain the rebound from the start of the week as longer-dated US Treasury yields hold above pre-pandemic levels. Get your $XAUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/zE7NafvfTq https://t.co/4BxMT0iyi1
  • Uh oh. Another financial product/meme pivot. I think Elon is just a BTD kind of guy who is in tune with the social trading trends and wants to bring the retail crowd along with him. Would fit the essence of Tesla and Space X https://t.co/EP9zj1rXzU
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Bears Fail at Support- March Levels - https://t.co/XkyFns8odx https://t.co/8Q4Tu0viz0
  • I feel the LaserEyes trend is a more effective social spread because of the visual impact. Kind of disappointed the community hasn't gotten a more tangible visual cue for BTD / BTFD. Or maybe there is one and I'm just behind the trend....which happens a lot recently
EUR/USD to Press Fresh Monthly Highs on Lackluster U.S. CPI

EUR/USD to Press Fresh Monthly Highs on Lackluster U.S. CPI

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow for Fourth Time in 2014.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold at Annualized 1.7% for Third Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spark a more meaningful rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens the interest rate outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD CPI

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in no rush to normalize monetary policy as a growing number of central bank officials highlight the downside risk for inflation expectations, and a marked slowdown in price growth may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as central bank hawks Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser lose their vote in 2015.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (OCT)

2.1%

2.0%

Personal Income (SEP)

0.3%

0.2%

ISM Non-Manufacturing (OCT)

58.0

57.1

Subdued wages paired with the slowdown in service-based activity may drag on price growth, and a weaker-than-expected CPI print may trigger a larger rebound in EUR/USD as market participants scale back bets for higher borrowing costs in the U.S.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV P)

87.5

89.4

NFIB Small Business Optimism (OCT)

96.0

96.1

Consumer Confidence (OCT)

87.0

94.5

Nevertheless, the ongoing improvement in household and business confidence may stoke faster price growth, and a strong inflation report should boost the appeal of the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Slows to Annualized 1.6% or Lower

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Headline & Core Price Growth Exceed Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • With the break of the monthly opening range, will watch former support on EUR/USD for new resistance.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2610 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2620 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2300 pivot

Read More:

Scalping the EURNZD Recovery- Interim Resistance 1.5980

Price & Time: Make Or Break For AUD/USD

Impact that the U.S. CPI report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP

2014

10/22/2014 12:30 GMT

1.6%

1.7%

-24

-59

September 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index

EUR/USD Chart

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at an annualized rate of 1.7% in September amid forecasts for a 1.6% print. At the same time, the core rate of inflation also remained unchanged at 1.7% during the same period. Lower energy and transportation costs continued to drag on price growth, while the report showed stable prices for nearly all other sectors. With the subdued outlook for inflation, the Fed may retain the highly accommodative policy for an extended period of time in order to balance the risks surrounding the region. The better-than-expected CPI print spurred a bullish reaction in the greenback, with EUR/USD slipping below 1.2675 during the North America trade to end the day at 1.2637.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES