We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Tune in to @JMcQueenFX's #webinar at 1:45 AM ET/5:45 AM GMT for live coverage of the UK #GDP. Register here: https://t.co/bpZzPpx2yb https://t.co/buaGdvXIs7
  • 🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Final (MAY) Actual: -26.3% Expected: -25.9% Previous: -15% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-14
  • $USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/EoFBiVss6y
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.69%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 74.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/KEifgdky1z
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/tdHfhlRoON
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Final (MAY) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Expected: -25.9% Previous: -15% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-14
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.09% Wall Street: 0.08% FTSE 100: -1.47% France 40: -1.61% Germany 30: -1.83% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/8NLFFxuuXr
  • RBNZ Credit Conditions Survey - New Zealand banks report a decline in demand for credit during first half of 2020. - Banks indicate lending standards are likely to tighten.
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/OjTZOQEytM https://t.co/0KdF1bvOXW
  • 🇨🇳 Balance of Trade (JUN) Actual: $46.42B Expected: $58.6B Previous: $62.93B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-14
Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Sentiment

Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Sentiment

2014-08-20 14:20:00
David Song, Shuyang Ren,
Share:

- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Expected to Halt QE in October.

- Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser Becomes First Hawkish Dissenter in 2014.

Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may spur a further decline in the EUR/USD should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD FOMC Minutes

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

With expectations for a stronger recovery in the second-half of the year, the policy statement may highlight a growing dissent within the FOMC, and the central bank may adopt a more hawkish tone this time around as it becomes increasingly confident in achieving its dual mandate over the policy horizon.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the FOMC Minutes, Join DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Consumer Price Index Core (JUL)

1.9%

1.9%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN)

1.4%

1.5%

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (2Q A)

3.0%

4.0%

Sticky inflation paired with the marked pickup in 2Q GDP may encourage a greater number of FOMC officials to drop their dovish outlook for monetary policy, and the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback may gather pace ahead of the next Fed meeting on September 17 should the meeting minutes highlight a more detailed exit strategy.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG P)

82.5

79.2

Advance Retail Sales (JUL)

0.2%

0.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)

2.2%

2.0%

However, subdued wage growth paired with the recent weakness in private sector consumption may keep the Fed on the sidelines for an extended period of time, and the policy statement may dampen the appeal of the reserve currency should it drag on interest rate expectations.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize Sooner

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Fed Talks Down Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Downside targets remain favored as descending triangle formation remains in play
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3510 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3520 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3200 (100% expansion) to 1.3230 (50.0% expansion)

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY the Coiled Spring?

USD Breakout Led by EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Bull Flags in USD/CAD, USD/CHF

Impact that the FOMC Minutes has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JUL

2014

07/30/2014 18:00 GMT

0.25%

0.25%

+ 14

+ 20

July 2014 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Sentiment

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tapered the asset purchase program to $25B in July from $35B in June even as the committee expressed concerns over underutilization of labor resources. Moreover, the central bank reiterated that it would likely keep the current range for the fed fund rate for a considerable period of time even after the asset purchase program ends. The sluggish labor utilization and the committee’s dovish tone dragged on the greenback as EUR/USD climbed to a high of 1.3404 after the release. The pair fluctuated around 1.3393 during the rest of the North American trade and closed at 1.3395.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.