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Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Sentiment

Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Sentiment

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Expected to Halt QE in October.

- Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser Becomes First Hawkish Dissenter in 2014.

Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may spur a further decline in the EUR/USD should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:


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Why Is This Event Important:

With expectations for a stronger recovery in the second-half of the year, the policy statement may highlight a growing dissent within the FOMC, and the central bank may adopt a more hawkish tone this time around as it becomes increasingly confident in achieving its dual mandate over the policy horizon.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the FOMC Minutes, Join DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Consumer Price Index Core (JUL)



Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN)



Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (QoQ) (2Q A)



Sticky inflation paired with the marked pickup in 2Q GDP may encourage a greater number of FOMC officials to drop their dovish outlook for monetary policy, and the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback may gather pace ahead of the next Fed meeting on September 17 should the meeting minutes highlight a more detailed exit strategy.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario




U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG P)



Advance Retail Sales (JUL)



Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)



However, subdued wage growth paired with the recent weakness in private sector consumption may keep the Fed on the sidelines for an extended period of time, and the policy statement may dampen the appeal of the reserve currency should it drag on interest rate expectations.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Shows Greater Willingness to Normalize Sooner

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Fed Talks Down Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Downside targets remain favored as descending triangle formation remains in play
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3510 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3520 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3200 (100% expansion) to 1.3230 (50.0% expansion)

Read More:

Price & Time: USD/JPY the Coiled Spring?

USD Breakout Led by EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Bull Flags in USD/CAD, USD/CHF

Impact that the FOMC Minutes has had on EUR/USD during the last release


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)



07/30/2014 18:00 GMT



+ 14

+ 20

July 2014 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Sentiment

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tapered the asset purchase program to $25B in July from $35B in June even as the committee expressed concerns over underutilization of labor resources. Moreover, the central bank reiterated that it would likely keep the current range for the fed fund rate for a considerable period of time even after the asset purchase program ends. The sluggish labor utilization and the committee’s dovish tone dragged on the greenback as EUR/USD climbed to a high of 1.3404 after the release. The pair fluctuated around 1.3393 during the rest of the North American trade and closed at 1.3395.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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