We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Euro Forecast: #EURGBP Broke Month-Long Range. What Next? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-gbp/2019/11/13/Euro-Forecast-EURGBP-Broke-Month-Long-Range-What-Next.html
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonized (YoY) (OCT F) due at 07:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.9% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-13
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT F) due at 07:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.1% Previous: 1.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-13
  • The $USD enjoyed support from haven demand through most of 2019. Investors may now be attracted by its yield advantage as global market mood improves. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/VqM4kinKYJ https://t.co/RG4RwLF6ps
  • Very interesting to see #Yen weakness despite broad declines in Asia stocks Wednesday, #SP500 futures are notably lower. Bond yields are on the rise (AU, NZ) after the #RBNZ rate hold. Seems like this may be a yield story amid 2020 #Fed rate cut bets also fading, fueling carry? https://t.co/34upnBTnTX
  • Here is my trading video for the coming trading session: '$USDJPY and S&P 500 Due a Break as Market Shifts from Trump to #Fed's Powell' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/11/13/USDJPY-and-SP-500-Due-a-Break-as-Market-Shifts-from-Trump-to-Feds-Powell.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.56%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 86.36%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oxWrEM6VSB
  • US-China Trade Deal Optimism Leaves Hong Kong Stocks Behind - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/13/US-China-Trade-Deal-Optimism-Leaves-Hong-Kong-Stocks-Behind.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #HongKongProtests #tradewar #HSI #HangSeng
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 1.11% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.21% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ctmAjNADFm
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.25% US 500: -0.26% France 40: -0.50% Germany 30: -0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/CSEF8InQHc
Crude Oil to Follow S&P 500 Higher, Gold Torn Between Competing Forces

Crude Oil to Follow S&P 500 Higher, Gold Torn Between Competing Forces

2011-05-31 07:58:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

Commodities – Energy

Crude Oil to Follow S&P 500 Higher

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $100.43 // -0.16 // -0.16%

Prices continue to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2nd high at $102.35. A break above this boundary exposes the 50% level at $104.73. Broadly speaking, anything shy of that keeps the overall structure broadly bearish. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant $100 figure, followed by the 5/6 low at $94.65.

Prices remain firmly anchored to underlying trends in investors’ risk appetite, with the WTI contract still showing a strong correlation with the S&P 500. On balance, this suggests the path of least resistance lies to the upside as stock index tracking the US benchmark push aggressively higher overnight amid waning Euro Zone sovereign risk fears. Optimism emerged after Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker ruled out a “total restructuring” for Greece – which would have amounted to a default – while a Wall Street Journal article cited an unnamed source saying German officials were ready to relax demands for early bond rescheduling to pave the way for a second round of aid to the Mediterranean country.

On the data front, the US Consumer Confidence reading headlines the calendar, with expectations calling for sentiment to rise for the second consecutive month in May, bolstering the case for an upside scenario over the next 24 hours. Weekly API inventory figures are also on tap.

Crude_Oil_to_Follow_SP_500_Higher_Gold_Torn_Between_Competing_Forces_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil to Follow S&P 500 Higher, Gold Torn Between Competing Forces

Commodities – Metals

Gold at Standstill, Torn Between Competing Forces

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1537.15 // +0.75 // +0.05%

Prices have taken out resistance at $1533.12, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 2 high, clearing the way for an advance to the 76.4% level at $1549.91. The 61.8% Fib has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below that targeting the 50% retracement at $1519.55.

Although gold seemed to have regained a bit of a safe-haven status over recent days amid resurgent Euro Zone debt fears, the relationship doesn’t seem to be working too well as those concerns recede. The metal stood essentially flat overnight, swinging between gains and losses in a narrow range to yield a response that didn’t alight with the formidable gains across the risky asset spectrum.

Perhaps tellingly, short-term correlation studies suggest the link between gold and stock markets is tentatively rebuilding, hinting a shift in focus back on the expiration of QE2 (due in a mere two weeks) is beginning to unfold as the immediate threat of a blow-up in the Euro Zone is unwound. Still, it remains premature to make firm conclusions at present.

Crude_Oil_to_Follow_SP_500_Higher_Gold_Torn_Between_Competing_Forces_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil to Follow S&P 500 Higher, Gold Torn Between Competing Forces

Spot Silver (NY Close): $38.16 // +0.16 // +0.42%

Prices remain wedged between $36.44 and $38.99, the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements of the 4/25-5/6 decline, respectively. The correlation between gold and silver seems to be ebbing on short-term studies, with the cheaper metal clinging to risk appetite and rebuilding its link to the S&P 500. As such, the upswing in sentiment overnight points the way higher, with a break of immediate resistance exposing the $40.00 figure, followed by the 50% Fib at 41.05.

Crude_Oil_to_Follow_SP_500_Higher_Gold_Torn_Between_Competing_Forces_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil to Follow S&P 500 Higher, Gold Torn Between Competing Forces

For real time news and analysis, please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

To receive future articles by email, please contact Ilya at ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.