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Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if US Data Bolsters Risky Assets

Oil May Rise as Gold Declines if US Data Bolsters Risky Assets

2010-05-14 06:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil May Pop on US Data But Outlook Remains Bearish

Crude Oil (WTI)       $73.67      -$0.73       -0.98%
Prices have continued to push lower following a break of support at the bottom of a rising channel established from mid-July 2009, with the first downside target marked by February’s swing low at $69.50. Near term, all eyes will be on the US data docket. Retail Sales are expected to rise for the seventh consecutive month in April to reach the highest level since September 2008 while Industrial Production adds 0.7 percent – the most in four months – over the same period. Meanwhile, a preliminary reading for May’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence indicator is set to show sentiment improved for the first time since January. While broadly positive data flow may offer a temporary reprieve, the crude fundamental landscape continues to favor the downside after the IEA lowered its 2010 world oil demand forecast – the first downgrade in a year – on weaker-than-expected consumption in emerging markets.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver May Pull Back if US Data Bolsters Risky Assets

Gold       $1235.45      +$2.75      +0.22%
Prices have broken out beyond resistance at the top of a rising channel set from the swing low in March and took out the December 2009 high at $1226.56 (a level now seen as near-term support). Prices are now in uncharted territory, with Fibonacci extensions suggesting the next layers of resistance line up at $1269.44 and $1295.97. The metal remains closely correlated with the VIX Index of stock option volatility – the markets’ standby “fear gauge” – hinting that consolidation or even a downturn may be ahead in the near term Wall St equity index futures tick modestly higher in anticipation of an encouraging round of US economic data.

Silver       $19.47      +$0.05      +0.25%
Prices are testing resistance at $19.50 near the December 2009 top. Negative divergence on relative strength studies hints that a pullback may be ahead however, with initial support at $18.90.

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