News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • The Japanese Yen is eyeing the upcoming Bank of Japan rate decision and CPI figures, but JPY crosses will likely remain dependent on broader market sentiment. Get your weekly $JPY forecast from @FxWestwater here:
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here:
  • Crude and Brent oil are on track to extend higher as Gulf Coast supply disruptions and a positive OPEC report bolster sentiment. Uranium is on a massive surge, aided by the famous Wall Street Bets group. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • RT @michaeljburry: Read thread.
  • The Australian Dollar has retraced from August lows when looking at AUD/JPY and AUD/CAD. However, the AUD/NZD downtrend is intact, will a reversal there appear as well? Find out:
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and DAX 30 could be at risk of falling as retail traders continue increasing their upside exposure in these indices. What are the key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar continues to hold its ground against most ASEAN currencies as recent downtrends lose momentum. What is the road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Canadian Dollar has been caught in broad ranges against the Euro and the US Dollar, but can the upside bias in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD prolong? Find out here:
  • Want to hear my thoughts on the US Dollar? Check out yesterday's recording with #AuzBiz hosted by @KaraOrdway on 'The Trade' We discussed a #USD index, Treasury yields, $USDJPY, $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD
The Fed's Last Chance for Clarity

The Fed's Last Chance for Clarity

Kathy Lien, Technical Strategist

Friday’s US retail sales report will be the final data point for FOMC voters to consider before next week’s much-anticipated policy meeting, although the data isn’t expected to make the Fed’s decision any easier.

Thursday was a mixed day for the US dollar (USD), which traded lower against the Japanese yen (JPY), higher against the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD), and unchanged against the euro (EUR), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), and Swiss franc (CHF).

After breaking briefly above 100 earlier this week, USDJPY rejected this level once again. Up until today, there were no US reports on the economic calendar, which means USDJPY weakness is a reflection of skepticism and hesitation ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision.

This morning, we learned that jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in seven years, but the admitted abnormal nature of the data meant that it elicited only a small reaction in the dollar.

See related: Standout US Data That’s Actually Bogus

Now, with less than a week to go before the FOMC monetary policy announcement, Friday’s US retail sales report is the last piece of data that could sway the central bank's decision.

Consumer spending is the backbone of the US economy, and even if job growth has been modest, if spending is strong, the Fed can confidently begin tapering asset purchases this month. Along those lines, a solid retail sales report could be just the push that policymakers need to give tapering a go.

However, the problem is that spending is not expected to be strong. Retail sales are expected to rise only 0.5%, up from 0.2% in July. Excluding spending on autos and gas, retail sales growth is forecasted to slow from 0.4% to 0.3%.

We believe that the risk is to the upside for the data, however, because according to the Johnson Redbook survey, spending improved last month, and even though the International Council of Shopping Centers reported a slowdown, the change was nominal.

Unfortunately, it would be wishful thinking to expect the data to be either so weak or so strong that it would make or break the Fed's decision. In all likelihood, retail sales continued to grow in the month of August, albeit at a sluggish pace that will leave the central bank with a very tough decision.

Unless retail sales rise by 1% or more, we expect the dollar to continue to weaken ahead of the FOMC rate decision next week. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also scheduled for release on Friday, and a small uptick is possible there.

By Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.