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Pending USDCAD

Pending USDCAD

2010-07-30 15:10:00
Michael Wright, Currency Analyst
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Once again, we continue to see a lackluster performance in the USDCAD as price action remains confined by the 50.0 and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement on the April 22nd to May 25th upswing. A breakout to the downside seems inevitable as our speculative sentiment now stands at 2.76, and signals for further declines. If the pair slips below the lower bounds, I will look to enter a short position and target the 1.01, which coincides with the 76.4 percent Fibo retracement. Indeed, a better than expected jump in the Canadian employment report may validate a short position as the loonie has added jobs for the sixth straight month thus far.

Earlier this week, I took a long USDJPY position which was unprofitable as the pair tumbled to the lowest level since November 30th as the economic data for the world’s largest economy disappointed throughout the week; economic activity slowed, while the Chicago federal national activity index tumbled for the month of June amid the increasingly fragile recovery. Also weighing on the U.S. dollar this week was the Fed’s Beige book which stated that growth is progressing at a slower pace than earlier this year. Though my USDJPY was unprofitable, my USDCAD short from 1.0410 last week hit its target of 1.0304 on Monday.

Going into next week, I will continue to monitor the USDCAD, and will also look for a good position to enter a long position in the USDJPY. It is noteworthy that our speculative sentiment index for the pair stands at an extreme level of 5.3, signaling for further declines. Though our index is forecasting for additional losses, we do not rule out a spike higher following rumors circulating the markets of a BoJ FX intervention. Another pair to keep a close eye out for is the EURUSD. Though I am very bearish on the euro, the 20-day SMA looks poised to crossover above the 100-day SMA, which is indicative of further gains. On the contrary, daily studies are nearing overbought levels, caution a test towards 1.2850. Good luck trading!!! Read more: Forex Analysis | Currency Trading Picks http://www.dailyfx.com/analyst_picks#ixzz0vB9SRYg1

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